Kentucky Derby Day

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: Duveen was one of the better 3yo turf runners early last year. He headed to the shelf after a poor showing in the Virginia Derby, then was transferred to the Kiaran McLaughlin stable. Duveen ran well over this course last year, winning the Crown Royal American Turf on the Oaks undercard, and finishing second after experiencing trouble in the Jefferson Cup. Duveen often raced close to the lead last year, but the pace in those races tended to be slow, so I expect that Prado will keep him in the back half of the field to take full advantage of Duveen’s powerful late run.

Derby: Pyro (1st), Denis of Cork (2nd), Z Fortune (3rd), and Court Vision (4th).

I will start by throwing out the undefeated Florida Derby winner Big Brown. There is no question that Big Brown is incredibly talented, but he has raced only three times, so he lacks the necessary seasoning to win the Derby. In addition, his training has been compromised by his well-documented foot problems. Although there are not any one-dimensional speedballs in the race, Big Brown’s 20th post position almost guarantees that he will be caught very wide on the first turn.

Pyro’s strengths are numerous. He has an explosive burst of speed, Asmussen has given him a solid foundation to handle the demands of the Derby, A.P. Indy (grandsire) and Wild Again (broodmare sire) provide stamina in his bloodlines, and he has a win over the track. His Blue Grass performance was bad, but I am willing to overlook it because he may not have cared for the Polytrack and he obviously was not primed for that race. He has trained solidly in the interim, and his workout earlier this week was noteworthy not in its time but how he did it. Pyro was kept under stout restraint for most of the work, and when he was finally given a little chance to run toward the end, he showed his usual rapid acceleration. It was the type of work that indicated that he was back on track.

Denis of Cork has been lightly raced by design, so this will be only his second start in almost 80 days. Denis of Cork did not run much when fifth in the paceless Illinois Derby, but he has bounced back to train probably better than any of his competitors. He showed a liking for the track when rallying from far back to win his debut in November. Denis of Cork has a potent late kick, so if he can get a clean trip and the pace is honest, he will make an impact late.

Z Fortune has been the overlooked 3yo in the Asmussen barn as he has raced and trained in Pyro’s shadow. His win in the Lecomte was solid, and although he finished second in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby, those were probably the best losing efforts by any Derby contender this year. While there is no doubt Pyro was much the best in the Risen Star, Z Fortune may have run a better race than the winner in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune was four wide on both turns in the Arkansas Derby, and while the pace was solid, the speed held, making Z Fortune’s closing effort more difficult.

Court Vision gave notice of his talent late last year when he won the Iroquois at Churchill and the Remsen. He returned with a decent vision in the Fountain of Youth, but followed that with a disappointing close third in the Wood Memorial. That effort was disappointing because the hot pace should have flattered his closing style, but he failed to take advantage of it. Garrett Gomez elects to stay aboard, and Court Vision has trained well at Churchill.

Colonel John has distinguished himself against the best of his generation on the West Coast, is bred to handle the distance, and has trained well, but this will be his first start over a conventional dirt surface.

Risk of posting selections early

I was very confident in Pure Clan's chances in the Oaks. My confidence was significantly lessened when I came home on Friday afternoon and realized that the track was sloppy and Elusive Lady, who was likely to press the pace, was scratched. I thought the she sloppy track and pace scenario would favor Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata, which is what I posted at the Starting Gate forum with around 12 minutes to post time: Post 10460: "The rain and the scratch of likely pace presser Elusive Lady has changed the complexion of the Oaks in favor of Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata."

I played Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata to win, and then used them as my keys in backup exactas, and I was pleased to get a generous 3-1 on Proud Spell.

Fair Grounds has once again shown that it is the place to prepare a filly for the Kentucky Oaks. Proud Spell joins Summerly, Ashado, Silverbulletday, Blushing K.D., Tiffany Lass as Fair Grounds winners who triumphed in the top race for 3yo fillies in America.

Kentucky Oaks Day

Aegon Turf Sprint (5th): These turf sprints are often dominated by specialists. Salute the Count is 5 for 9 in turf sprints, including a minor stakes win at The Meadowlands. He is winless in three starts this year, but has been giving a good account of himself with his rallies falling short. In an optional claimer at GP in February, Salute The Count passed nine horses in less than a furlong. His last effort was an excellent second going six furlongs over Polytrack at Keeneland against a tough group of sprinters.

Edgewood (7th): Grace And Power was a top turf filly as a 2yo, and closed out her season with a strong second in the Hollywood Starlet. She has been working regularly at Fair Hill training center for trainer Steve Klesaris, who is very capable with horses coming off a layoff. Gypsy Baby is winless in two starts since coming to this country. However, in her last run, she closely furiously to miss against allowance foes at Kee. Garrett Gomez stays aboard Gypsy Baby.

Crown Royal American Turf (9th): Free Fighter was a smart winner of a Fair Grounds turf allowance in his 2008 debut in February. He next appeared in the off-the-turf Transylvania at Keeneland, when he ran a steady fifth while wide. He has drawn the rail in this event, and he should give a much better performance as he returns to turf.

Kentucky Oaks (10th): Pure Clan gave notice that she would be a major Oaks contender when she easily won the Pocahontas and Golden Rod to close out her 2yo season. She chased Eight Belles in vain in the Honeybee, and a change in racing tactics was not successful against Eight Belles in the Fantasy. Those two races were merely preps for the Oaks, and she will appreciate the added distance. The expected honest pace will suit her closing style.

Selections for Saturday, April 19

Lexington Stakes (Keeneland 9th): If Racecar Rhapsody wants to be in the Kentucky Derby, he needs to win the Lexington, which he should do. He likes the Polytrack and ran well in defeat in the Lane's End when making his 2008 debut.

Tesio (Pimlico 9th): Cave's Valley was much too close to a hot pace in the Private Terms. He was a multiple stakes winner as a 2yo, and should return to his winning ways in this race.

Selections for Saturday, March 22

4th Fair Grounds: A Little Tipsy.

5th Fair Grounds: Tensas Why Gin.

9th Fair Grounds: My Three Sisters.

Closing weekend at Fair Grounds

This weekend is the final weekend of the Fair Grounds 2007-2008 meet. I think this has been one of the top two, if not the best, Fair Grounds meet that I have experienced. The racing at the top levels was outstanding, the jockey colony was the toughest I have ever seen it thanks to newcomers Bridgmohan and Leparoux, and the prominent new stables such as Larry Jones and Bill Mott were a welcome addition. Jones in particular made many of the dirt MSWs and Nw1x allowances for young horses competitive and thus, attractive betting events. While the racing at the higher claiming levels was average at best, that is mostly a reflection of the pool of available horses from which Fair Grounds draws.

I always have mixed feelings at the end of every Fair Grounds meet. It is relief to some extent because it becomes a burden to follow each day of racing at Fair Grounds. Yet, I am still sad knowing that it will be approximately eight months until horses are racing again at the Gentilly oval. The knowledge that the major 3yo preps and the Keeneland Spring meet are up ahead certainly makes things better.

Selections for Louisiana Derby Day

The big day is here for Fair Grounds fans, and the track has put together an outstanding card.

4th Race: Pectoralis Major had no chance when closing well behind a slow pace to finish a good fourth in a February race at this condition. The pace should be more honest in this race, and she gets an extra 1/16th of a mile to run.

Kenner Hcp: Noonmark ran respectable races as a 3yo while facing the better sprinters of his generation. He headed to the sidelines for nine months after running far behind Discreet Cat in the Jerome, but has returned to the run well in his next five races. Noonmark, who shipped to Gulfstream to win the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector in his last start, has trained at FG since November. He has enough early foot to remain close to Euroears without compromising his closing kick.

New Orleans Hcp: Brass Hat has been carefully managed while running against the best older horses in the world. When he is on his game, he is top-class, as shown by his win in the 2006 Donn Handicap, and his second in the Dubai World Cup that same year. He loves the distance, and shipped to Fair Grounds early to get a four furlong work over the track.

Muniz Hcp: This is a very tough race. Grade 1 winner Daytona returns from Southern California after a huge win in the Fair Grounds Handicap, but I don't think he will run as well this time as he will be facing yielding conditions. Brilliant would normally be tough to beat, but this is his first race in eight months, and he is obviously pointing to other races down the road. Fracas makes his U.S. debut for Barclay Tagg, after winning multiple Group events in Ireland and England. He is competitive with this group, and will be ignored in the betting. I also like Twilight Meteor, who lost a photo to Nobiz Like Showbiz in a turf stakes last summer at Delaware Park.

Louisiana Derby: Pyro is the hot horse after his dynamite win in the Risen Star, but I wonder if he is set up for a top effort in this race. He has earned enough money in graded stakes to cement his spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby, so I think all his connections want from this race is for him to get enough out of this race without knocking him backwards. I like two horses in here. J Be King has never raced past six furlongs in two career runs, but has been explosive in both his debut at Saratoga and his win last month at Fair Grounds. He may find himself on an easy lead and head straight for the winner's circle. Blackberry Road has the opposite running style as he likes to run from far back. He did not have a chance at beating Pyro in the Risen Star, but his trouble in the stretch cost him a much closer finish. He gets a new pilot in Robbie Albarado. If Blackberry Road can get a cleaner trip, his potent late run will make him competitive in here.