MARATHON
Sixties Icon is the 2-1 morning line favorite. While he thrives at 12 furlongs, he has raced exclusively on turf and he broke poorly in his last two races.
Muhannak (1st) has had some success racing long distances over Polytrack in England and Ireland. There is no doubt that he can handle the trip.
Zappa (2nd) is the speed of the race. He wired the field in a stakes going 12 furlongs at Del Mar, and he will try to do the same in the Marathon. Zappa also won the only other time that he was on the lead at the first call, which was in an 11 furlong starter handicap at Fairplex Park.
Delightful Kiss (3rd) has a strong late kick and won his only two starts over synthetic dirt surfaces.
TURF SPRINT
This is not the typical turf sprint as experienced by many of the starters in their careers. The distance of 6.5 furlongs is slightly longer than most turf sprint stakes, and most of the race will be run over the unusual downhill course at Santa Anita. The pace will be very fast with California Flag, Desert Code, and Mr. Nightlinger all vying for the early lead. The large field will lead to traffic problems for some. Fleeting Spirit, a 3yo filly from Europe, is accustomed to large fields, but she has never been around a turn in any of her eight starts.
Get Funky (1st) has won twice in three starts when sprinting over this course. His rivals may match his talent level, but he is at his best in turf sprints at Santa Anita.
Storm Treasure (2nd) will be flying late as he has been a strong closer at middle-distance turf races. His lack of early foot may cause him to lose contact with the field.
Desert Code (3rd) can count three wins from five starts when sprinting over this course. He was dull in his prep in the Morvich, but in that race he was too close to the rapid pace set by the winner California Flag.
DIRT MILE
Well Armed (1st) is in the proper Cup race as ten panels is at the far end of his range. His loss by a neck in the Pacific Classic and his distant third to Curlin in the Dubai World Cup were very good efforts, but Well Armed is best at shorter routes. Well Armed has excellent tactical speed, which will serve him well in this race. He wired the fields in the San Antonio and San Diego Handicaps, and he came from just off the pace when winning the Goodwood.
Albertus Maximus (2nd) has rapidly improved since being transferred to the Vladimir Cerin barn this summer. His closing effort to be third in the Goodwood sets him up nicely for this event.
Surf Cat (3rd) is a versatile runner who has won Grade 2 stakes at 6.5, 7, 8.5, and 9 furlongs. The mile suits him, and he is favorably drawn in the second post position.
MILE
Although this field is not loaded with runners who come flying from the gate, there are a number of entrants who like to be on or near the lead in the first furlong. Defending champ Kip Deville is two for two over this course, but he has been lightly campaigned this year.
Goldikova (1st) will be in a good position to take advantage of any pace meltdown that may occur. This 3yo filly is one of the better milers in Europe, having taken the Prix du Moulin in her last effort. Despite stumbling at the break, Goldikova finished within two lengths of Arc winner Zarkava when she faced her in the French 1,000 Guineas.
Daytona (2nd) is one tough turf miler, as he is more than capable of pressing or setting a hot pace and still ending up in the winner’s circle. Daytona is three for three at Santa Anita.
Whatsthescript (3rd) has a quick burst of speed in the stretch, which may give him an edge against some of the other closers. He breaks from an outside post position, but Garrett Gomez should be able to navigate him closer to the inside.
JUVENILE
The connections of Group 1 winner Bushranger must be very high on their horse in order to pass up the $1 million Juvenile Turf in favor of this race.
Munnings (1st) is one of only three runners in the field who has been first at the initial call in any of his races. Munnings has drawn the rail and will be forwardly placed. He stalked a fast pace while three wide in the Champagne, yet still continued on well to be second.
Midshipman (2nd) won the Del Mar Futurity, then closed with a flourish to finish a good second in the Norfolk. He should move forward with a two-turn race under his belt, and there is a rider switch to Garrett Gomez.
Square Eddie (3rd) bounded to an easy win in the Breeders’ Futurity in his American debut.
JUVENILE TURF
Of the three challengers from Europe, Westphalia, winner of the Group 2 Champagne at Doncaster, is the most highly regarded.
Grand Adventure (1st) generally stays close to the pace and has a potent late kick. He made a bold wide run to seize control of the Summer at Woodbine and may have won by a bigger margin if his jockey had not dropped the whip.
Bittel Road (2nd) narrowly beat Skipadate in a minor turf stakes at Saratoga. In his next race, Bittel Road put in a big late run to win the Bourbon at Keeneland. He is versatile, as he showed when he essentially wired the field in his debut in a turf sprint at Saratoga. Having raced exclusively over the grass, Bittel Road is undefeated in three career starts.
Skipadate (3rd) closed strongly in the Summer, but was unable to outsprint rival Grand Adventure.
SPRINT
The most likely pace scenario is for Fabulous Strike to head to the front and to be hounded by Black Seventeen, Fatal Bullet, and First Defence. Cost of Freedom will try to keep up, but is not fast enough.
Street Boss (1st) has won six of his last eight races, loves this track, and will be flying late.
Midnight Lute (2nd) is the defending champion. He never picked up his feet while finishing 10th in the Pat O’Brien in his only start of the year, but this is his home track, and he has a history of delivering a top effort when fresh, so he should give a good account of himself.
First Defence (3rd) flopped in the Vosburgh, when he may not have cared for the sealed track. His better efforts make him competitive in this spot.
TURF
The Europeans are out in force with a tough contingent. Two past winners, Better Talk Now and Red Rocks, are in the field. Red Rock Canyon has been entered by Aidan O’Brien as a rabbit.
Eagle Mountain (1st) finished second, three lengths ahead of Soldier of Fortune, in the 2007 Epsom Derby, but Soldier of Fortune turned the tables in the Irish Derby. Eagle Mountain closed out his season last year by losing the photo in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. In his only start this year, he tuned up for this race with a score in a Group 3 at Newmarket.
Winchester (2nd) ran a huge race to dominate the Secretariat in his only U.S. start. Although he is not as highly rated as some of the other Europeans in this race, he obviously relished the firm going that he found at Arlington Park. His winning time in the Secretariat was 2/5ths of a second faster than the time of the Arlington Million.
Soldier of Fortune (3rd) has been lightly raced this year, and was last seen finishing in a dead-heat for third in the Arc.
CLASSIC
Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator, and Raven’s Pass, who together have won an incredible 10 Group 1s this year, have traveled across the Atlantic to take a shot at Curlin. Of the three, Raven’s Pass has the breeding that is best suited for dirt racing, as he is by Elusive Quality and out of a Lord at War mare.
Raven’s Pass (1st) finally bested his rival Henrythenavigator when winning the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot. With his American breeding influences, he should have no problem handling the switch to dirt. Raven’s Pass will run on Lasix for the first time, and his trainer John Gosden is very familiar with running horses at Santa Anita.
Curlin (2nd) is the best horse in the world on a conventional dirt track. Curlin has a history of doing something better when he does it for a second time, which explains why he was shipped to Dubai early to get in a prep for the World Cup. Curlin does not have the benefit of a trial run this time, as this will be his first race in California and over a synthetic dirt surface.
Casino Drive (3rd) had only one start to his credit when he shipped to New York from Japan and won the Peter Pan in convincing fashion. He has had only one start since, a useful allowance win two weeks ago at Santa Anita.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Selections for Breeders' Cup Friday
A good starting point for my analysis is a brief history of some of the different types of synthetic dirt surfaces that have been used at Santa Anita. Santa Anita installed Cushion Track prior to the 2007 Oak Tree meeting. Cushion Track was also installed at Hollywood Park. Cushion Track worked fine at Santa Anita until heavy rains hit in January of 2008, and the track did not drain properly, forcing Santa Anita to cancel racing for several days. In early February of this year, a different brand of synthetic track, Pro Ride, was blended into the surface. After the winter-spring meet ended, the Cushion Track was completely removed and replaced with Pro Ride. Cushion Track and Pro Ride are not be confused with Polytrack, which is used at Arlington, Del Mar, Keeneland, Turfway Park, and Woodbine. Golden Gate Fields uses Tapeta.
FILLY AND MARE SPRINT: Indian Blessing is a spectacular filly, but her only effort over a synthetic dirt surface last January was not even close to one of her better races. Granted, that was over Cushion Track, and not Pro Ride. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to take such low odds on her when her ability to handle the surface is a big question. Ventura, an accomplished runner on the grass, won the Madison at Keeneland, but will start from a far outside post.
Tiz Elemental (1st) has been competitive at this level all year. In April, she beat Intagaroo in the Las Flores at Santa Anita. She is a bargain at anything close to her 20-1 morning line.
Intagaroo (2nd) has won three Grade 1 stakes at this distance this year. She has not raced since winning the Ballerina at Saratoga in late August, but she runs well fresh.
Zaftig (3rd) blasted past Indian Blessing to win the Acorn in June. That was her last start. The layoff and her lack of racing experience over synthetic surfaces present concerns, but she likes the distance and the pace should be honest enough to suit her running style.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: This race did not attract the toughest group of European challengers. There is not a single Group stakes winner among the three invaders from across the Atlantic.
Laragh (1st) set a very fast pace before tiring late in the Natalma at Woodbine in her first grass start. She next appeared in the Jessamine at Keeneland, where she set fairly fast fractions on her way to a big victory.
Consequence (2nd) won a turf sprint at Saratoga in her debut. She followed that up with a wide closing effort to be 4th in the Miss Grillo at Belmont.
Heart Shaped (3rd) has some respectable efforts against good company in England and Ireland for Aidan O’Brien.
JUVENILE FILLIES: The winners of all the major route races for 2yo fillies appear in this event. Doremifasollatido was a professional winner of the Matron, but she is stuck in the 13th post position and will likely be caught very wide on the run into the first turn.
Van Lear Rose (1st) rallied strongly to win the two-turn Mazarine at Woodbine in her last start. Her top speed figure is not far behind some of her more highly-regarded competitors, she has drawn a favorable post, and she is 30-1 on the morning line.
C.S. Silk (2nd) set a rapid pace going wire-to-wire for a victory in the Arlington-Washington Lassie. There is not much early speed in this race, so Albarado may try to steal it on the front end. Her early foot also gives her a tactical edge in this large field.
Stardom Bound (3rd) was much the best in the Oak Leaf. Prior to that race, this closer won the Del Mar Debutante.
FILLY AND MARE TURF: The pace should be reasonable with Dynaforce and Folk Opera vying for the early lead, and Wait A While sitting right behind that pair.
Halfway to Heaven (1st) has kept top company in Europe during her short career. Winner of three Group 1 events this year, this 3yo filly also finished a close third to Zarkava in the French One Thousand Guineas. Halfway to Heaven has occasionally raced on the lead in Europe, so she should take up a striking position not far off the pacesetters.
Pure Clan (2nd) may be the forgotten filly in this race. Winner of four of her five career turf starts, she was victorious in the Regret and American Oaks earlier this year. Her only turf loss was a good second while experiencing a bit of trouble in the Garden City at Belmont.
Mauralakana (3rd) has done little wrong this year while winning more than $1 million. A heavy favorite in the Flower Bowl, she faced the difficult task of trying to outsprint winner Dynaforce after that one was allowed to set slow fractions on an unchallenged lead.
LADIES CLASSIC: Hystericalady, second in this race in 2007, set soft fractions in the last two editions of the Lady’s Secret. In 2007, she lost the Lady’s Secret by a nose. This year, Zenyatta flew past her late to win going away. Hystericalady will likely try the same front-running tactics in this race. The riders aboard Bear Now and defending champion Ginger Punch will take up stalking positions behind Hystericalady. Ginger Punch does not appear nearly as strong as she did last year, and although she has won five of seven starts in 2008, she has had to work hard for some of those victories. Carriage Trail ran a huge race in the Spinster, but she drifted out badly in the stretch.
Zenyatta (1st) towers over this field. Slow pace, fast pace, it does not matter. She gallops near the rear of the field, then uncorks a powerful stretch run. The relatively small field is in her favor as she will likely avoid significant traffic trouble.
Cocoa Beach (2nd) ran a remarkable race when reeling in Ginger Punch in the Beldame. Over a sealed track at Belmont, Cocoa Beach was able to wear down Ginger Punch after that one waltzed through the opening fractions.
Music Note (3rd) was an easy victor of the Mother Goose, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Gazelle this year. She has good tactical speed and will try to get the jump on Zenyatta.
FILLY AND MARE SPRINT: Indian Blessing is a spectacular filly, but her only effort over a synthetic dirt surface last January was not even close to one of her better races. Granted, that was over Cushion Track, and not Pro Ride. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to take such low odds on her when her ability to handle the surface is a big question. Ventura, an accomplished runner on the grass, won the Madison at Keeneland, but will start from a far outside post.
Tiz Elemental (1st) has been competitive at this level all year. In April, she beat Intagaroo in the Las Flores at Santa Anita. She is a bargain at anything close to her 20-1 morning line.
Intagaroo (2nd) has won three Grade 1 stakes at this distance this year. She has not raced since winning the Ballerina at Saratoga in late August, but she runs well fresh.
Zaftig (3rd) blasted past Indian Blessing to win the Acorn in June. That was her last start. The layoff and her lack of racing experience over synthetic surfaces present concerns, but she likes the distance and the pace should be honest enough to suit her running style.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: This race did not attract the toughest group of European challengers. There is not a single Group stakes winner among the three invaders from across the Atlantic.
Laragh (1st) set a very fast pace before tiring late in the Natalma at Woodbine in her first grass start. She next appeared in the Jessamine at Keeneland, where she set fairly fast fractions on her way to a big victory.
Consequence (2nd) won a turf sprint at Saratoga in her debut. She followed that up with a wide closing effort to be 4th in the Miss Grillo at Belmont.
Heart Shaped (3rd) has some respectable efforts against good company in England and Ireland for Aidan O’Brien.
JUVENILE FILLIES: The winners of all the major route races for 2yo fillies appear in this event. Doremifasollatido was a professional winner of the Matron, but she is stuck in the 13th post position and will likely be caught very wide on the run into the first turn.
Van Lear Rose (1st) rallied strongly to win the two-turn Mazarine at Woodbine in her last start. Her top speed figure is not far behind some of her more highly-regarded competitors, she has drawn a favorable post, and she is 30-1 on the morning line.
C.S. Silk (2nd) set a rapid pace going wire-to-wire for a victory in the Arlington-Washington Lassie. There is not much early speed in this race, so Albarado may try to steal it on the front end. Her early foot also gives her a tactical edge in this large field.
Stardom Bound (3rd) was much the best in the Oak Leaf. Prior to that race, this closer won the Del Mar Debutante.
FILLY AND MARE TURF: The pace should be reasonable with Dynaforce and Folk Opera vying for the early lead, and Wait A While sitting right behind that pair.
Halfway to Heaven (1st) has kept top company in Europe during her short career. Winner of three Group 1 events this year, this 3yo filly also finished a close third to Zarkava in the French One Thousand Guineas. Halfway to Heaven has occasionally raced on the lead in Europe, so she should take up a striking position not far off the pacesetters.
Pure Clan (2nd) may be the forgotten filly in this race. Winner of four of her five career turf starts, she was victorious in the Regret and American Oaks earlier this year. Her only turf loss was a good second while experiencing a bit of trouble in the Garden City at Belmont.
Mauralakana (3rd) has done little wrong this year while winning more than $1 million. A heavy favorite in the Flower Bowl, she faced the difficult task of trying to outsprint winner Dynaforce after that one was allowed to set slow fractions on an unchallenged lead.
LADIES CLASSIC: Hystericalady, second in this race in 2007, set soft fractions in the last two editions of the Lady’s Secret. In 2007, she lost the Lady’s Secret by a nose. This year, Zenyatta flew past her late to win going away. Hystericalady will likely try the same front-running tactics in this race. The riders aboard Bear Now and defending champion Ginger Punch will take up stalking positions behind Hystericalady. Ginger Punch does not appear nearly as strong as she did last year, and although she has won five of seven starts in 2008, she has had to work hard for some of those victories. Carriage Trail ran a huge race in the Spinster, but she drifted out badly in the stretch.
Zenyatta (1st) towers over this field. Slow pace, fast pace, it does not matter. She gallops near the rear of the field, then uncorks a powerful stretch run. The relatively small field is in her favor as she will likely avoid significant traffic trouble.
Cocoa Beach (2nd) ran a remarkable race when reeling in Ginger Punch in the Beldame. Over a sealed track at Belmont, Cocoa Beach was able to wear down Ginger Punch after that one waltzed through the opening fractions.
Music Note (3rd) was an easy victor of the Mother Goose, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Gazelle this year. She has good tactical speed and will try to get the jump on Zenyatta.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Selections for Saturday, October 4th
Champagne: Cribnote.
Frizette: Persistently.
Jamaica: Wesley.
EP Taylor: Folk Opera.
Canadian International: Quijano.
Phoenix: Emirates to Dubai.
Woodford: Starvinsky.
Breeders’ Futurity: Majestic Blue.
Shadwell Turf Mile: French Beret.
TCOA: Wild Gams.
Indiana Derby: Famous Patriot.
Frizette: Persistently.
Jamaica: Wesley.
EP Taylor: Folk Opera.
Canadian International: Quijano.
Phoenix: Emirates to Dubai.
Woodford: Starvinsky.
Breeders’ Futurity: Majestic Blue.
Shadwell Turf Mile: French Beret.
TCOA: Wild Gams.
Indiana Derby: Famous Patriot.
Friday, October 3, 2008
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