Selections for Breeders' Cup Friday

A good starting point for my analysis is a brief history of some of the different types of synthetic dirt surfaces that have been used at Santa Anita. Santa Anita installed Cushion Track prior to the 2007 Oak Tree meeting. Cushion Track was also installed at Hollywood Park. Cushion Track worked fine at Santa Anita until heavy rains hit in January of 2008, and the track did not drain properly, forcing Santa Anita to cancel racing for several days. In early February of this year, a different brand of synthetic track, Pro Ride, was blended into the surface. After the winter-spring meet ended, the Cushion Track was completely removed and replaced with Pro Ride. Cushion Track and Pro Ride are not be confused with Polytrack, which is used at Arlington, Del Mar, Keeneland, Turfway Park, and Woodbine. Golden Gate Fields uses Tapeta.


FILLY AND MARE SPRINT: Indian Blessing is a spectacular filly, but her only effort over a synthetic dirt surface last January was not even close to one of her better races. Granted, that was over Cushion Track, and not Pro Ride. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to take such low odds on her when her ability to handle the surface is a big question. Ventura, an accomplished runner on the grass, won the Madison at Keeneland, but will start from a far outside post.

Tiz Elemental (1st) has been competitive at this level all year. In April, she beat Intagaroo in the Las Flores at Santa Anita. She is a bargain at anything close to her 20-1 morning line.

Intagaroo (2nd) has won three Grade 1 stakes at this distance this year. She has not raced since winning the Ballerina at Saratoga in late August, but she runs well fresh.

Zaftig (3rd) blasted past Indian Blessing to win the Acorn in June. That was her last start. The layoff and her lack of racing experience over synthetic surfaces present concerns, but she likes the distance and the pace should be honest enough to suit her running style.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: This race did not attract the toughest group of European challengers. There is not a single Group stakes winner among the three invaders from across the Atlantic.

Laragh (1st) set a very fast pace before tiring late in the Natalma at Woodbine in her first grass start. She next appeared in the Jessamine at Keeneland, where she set fairly fast fractions on her way to a big victory.

Consequence (2nd) won a turf sprint at Saratoga in her debut. She followed that up with a wide closing effort to be 4th in the Miss Grillo at Belmont.

Heart Shaped (3rd) has some respectable efforts against good company in England and Ireland for Aidan O’Brien.


JUVENILE FILLIES: The winners of all the major route races for 2yo fillies appear in this event. Doremifasollatido was a professional winner of the Matron, but she is stuck in the 13th post position and will likely be caught very wide on the run into the first turn.

Van Lear Rose (1st) rallied strongly to win the two-turn Mazarine at Woodbine in her last start. Her top speed figure is not far behind some of her more highly-regarded competitors, she has drawn a favorable post, and she is 30-1 on the morning line.

C.S. Silk (2nd) set a rapid pace going wire-to-wire for a victory in the Arlington-Washington Lassie. There is not much early speed in this race, so Albarado may try to steal it on the front end. Her early foot also gives her a tactical edge in this large field.

Stardom Bound (3rd) was much the best in the Oak Leaf. Prior to that race, this closer won the Del Mar Debutante.


FILLY AND MARE TURF: The pace should be reasonable with Dynaforce and Folk Opera vying for the early lead, and Wait A While sitting right behind that pair.

Halfway to Heaven (1st) has kept top company in Europe during her short career. Winner of three Group 1 events this year, this 3yo filly also finished a close third to Zarkava in the French One Thousand Guineas. Halfway to Heaven has occasionally raced on the lead in Europe, so she should take up a striking position not far off the pacesetters.

Pure Clan (2nd) may be the forgotten filly in this race. Winner of four of her five career turf starts, she was victorious in the Regret and American Oaks earlier this year. Her only turf loss was a good second while experiencing a bit of trouble in the Garden City at Belmont.

Mauralakana (3rd) has done little wrong this year while winning more than $1 million. A heavy favorite in the Flower Bowl, she faced the difficult task of trying to outsprint winner Dynaforce after that one was allowed to set slow fractions on an unchallenged lead.



LADIES CLASSIC: Hystericalady, second in this race in 2007, set soft fractions in the last two editions of the Lady’s Secret. In 2007, she lost the Lady’s Secret by a nose. This year, Zenyatta flew past her late to win going away. Hystericalady will likely try the same front-running tactics in this race. The riders aboard Bear Now and defending champion Ginger Punch will take up stalking positions behind Hystericalady. Ginger Punch does not appear nearly as strong as she did last year, and although she has won five of seven starts in 2008, she has had to work hard for some of those victories. Carriage Trail ran a huge race in the Spinster, but she drifted out badly in the stretch.

Zenyatta (1st) towers over this field. Slow pace, fast pace, it does not matter. She gallops near the rear of the field, then uncorks a powerful stretch run. The relatively small field is in her favor as she will likely avoid significant traffic trouble.

Cocoa Beach (2nd) ran a remarkable race when reeling in Ginger Punch in the Beldame. Over a sealed track at Belmont, Cocoa Beach was able to wear down Ginger Punch after that one waltzed through the opening fractions.

Music Note (3rd) was an easy victor of the Mother Goose, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Gazelle this year. She has good tactical speed and will try to get the jump on Zenyatta.