Kentucky Derby Analysis

FRIESAN FIRE (1st): Friesan Fire was highly regarded by Larry Jones as a 2yo, but was overshadowed by his stablemate Old Fashioned. Friesan Fire had the physical tools to be a top horse, but lacked focus. Sent to New Orleans to winter, Friesan Fire made his Fair Grounds debut in a tough Nw1x allowance at a mile in mid-December. Outfitted with blinkers for the first time, Friesan Fire was too aggressive early and chased a fast pace, but still finished well down the lane while well-clear of the third-place horse. Interestingly, that allowance race had originally been scheduled to run a week earlier, but Fair Grounds had cancelled the card because of snow.
Friesan Fire started getting his act together in the Lecomte as he relaxed behind a soft pace, then rallied on the far turn to take command at the top of the stretch on his way to an impressive score.
Twelve rivals showed up to face Friesan Fire in the Risen Star. Friesan Fire broke from the 6th post and was rank in the first turn, but settled down on the backstretch. He lost position late on the far turn while between horses, but Gabriel Saez didn’t panic. Saez tipped his mount to the outside, and Friesan Fire ran down the leaders to win the Risen Star in dominating fashion.
Friesan Fire relished the sloppy conditions in the Louisiana Derby. Breaking from the extreme outside in the field of nine, Friesan Fire took up an outside stalking position behind Papa Clem, engaged that one near the 3/8 pole, and steadily pulled away with ease down the stretch. His time was 0.09 seconds faster than Rachel Alexandra’s winning time in the Fair Grounds Oaks.
The two biggest knocks against Friesan Fire are his seven-week layoff and his lack of a race beyond 8.5 furlongs. The layoff between the Louisiana and Kentucky Derbies was by design. Friesan Fire has worked well in the interim, capped by a rapid 5 furlong work on Monday. He is ready to run a big effort. Friesan Fire has a solid foundation, having raced at a mile or more in his last five races, so the lack of a nine-furlong race won’t hamper him. By A.P. Indy and out of a top-class Australian broodmare, Friesan Fire can run all day.
There is hardly any early speed in the Derby, which works to Friesan Fire’s advantage. Saez should be able to save ground all the way around and work out an excellent trip.

PAPA CLEM (2nd): Overlooked in Friesan Fire’s romp in the Louisiana Derby was Papa Clem’s strong effort in his first race over a conventional dirt track. He never quit even when passed by Friesan Fire before the quarter-pole, and he held several good closers at bay. Papa Clem showed a new dimension when winning the Arkansas Derby with a late move from the middle of the pack.

DUNKIRK (3rd): Dunkirk is immensely talented, but gives up a lot to his rivals in terms of experience. Although his rally fizzled in the Florida Derby, his move on the far turn was visually impressive.

REGAL RANSOM (4th): Sharp winner of the UAE Derby will be prominent early for the underrated Alan Garcia.