By and large, the racing press seems determined to hand the Eclipse Award for Older Male to Lawyer Ron. Not so fast.
Lawyer Ron had a good year, winning four of eight starts. His stakes wins were in the Woodward and Whitney at Saratoga as well as the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. He finished the year with two losses as he was run down by Curlin late in the stretch of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and then was nowhere to be found in the Breeders Cup Classic.
Corinthian also had a good year. He won four of seven starts, with his stakes wins coming in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, the Met Mile, and the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap. He split decisions with Lawyer Ron , beating Lawyer Ron by about a length in the Met Mile, but he later ran about ten lengths behind Lawyer Ron in the Woodward.
Their records are very similar. But there is one big difference between the two. Corinthian won a Breeders Cup race, albeit a race with 20% of the purse of the Classic in which Lawyer Ron flopped. Nevertheless, it was a Breeders Cup race, and if the Breeders Cup is to serve as some sort of proving ground for champions, the win in Breeders Cup Mile along with the Met Mile victory should carry greater weight than the wins in the Woodward and Whitney.
The argument could be settled in either the Cigar Mile or the Clark Handicap. Invasor may also claim the title based upon his early season wins in the Donn Handicap and Dubai World Cup. But if the decisions comes down to between Corinthian and Lawyer Ron and neither races again this year, then I think the nod should go to Corinthian.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Breeders Cup Saturday
JUVENILE FILLIES
This edition boasts one of the weaker fields to ever enter the starting gate in this race. Proud Spell is undefeated after three starts, but while her Matron win was visually impressive, she won that race in a slow time. Indian Blessing romped in the Frizette after pushing quick early fractions. The pace figures to be softer this time, so this is her race to lose as the favorite, but this will be her first two-turn test.
Grace Anatomy (1st): She ran a deceptively good race in the Alcibiades when finishing a close third. After she broke slowly, Mike Smith elected not only to keep her wide into the first turn but also to let her move up quickly on the first turn in order to get closer to the lead. She settled down the backstretch, then put in a strong run while outside on the turn to take the lead entering the stretch. It is not surprising that she tired late after those early efforts. Dettori hops aboard.
Irish Smoke (2nd): Irish Smoke was an easy winner of the Spinaway as she was able to relax behind a rapid pace. She ran a horrible race in the Alcibiades, finishing last, but she has come back to work well in the interim.
A To The Croft (3rd): She has the look of a filly who will relish route racing. After breaking her maiden in her debut, A To The Croft has run a closing second in each of her next three races. Her extreme outside post does not help her chances, but her running style should allow her to drop behind the field and closer to the rail without losing too much ground on the first turn.
JUVENILE
Unlike its filly counterpart, the Juvenile has attracted an accomplished group of 2yos with bright futures. The Champagne appears to have been the toughest prep.
Pyro (1st): Pyro has the breeding and running style of a horse who should relish two turns. Even though a fast pace helped his rally for second in the Champagne, he nonetheless closed a great deal of ground in the stretch. He has lost two races to War Pass; he turns the tables in the Juvenile.
War Pass (2nd): This undefeated Zito runner bounded out to a big early lead through fast fractions in the Champagne and never looked back. Without much other quality early speed signed on in this race, War Pass should be able to set a comfortable pace. However, Tale of Ekati had a blazing work earlier in the week, so he may be too sharp to let War Pass get an easy lead.
Tale of Ekati (3rd): Tale of Ekati looked very professional making a rally along the inside to win the Futurity after experiencing gate trouble. Tagg was reportedly upset about his extremely fast four furlong workout this week.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
Nashoba’s Key is a vulnerable favorite. Although she is undefeated in seven career races, three of her four turf races have been restricted to California-breds. Interestingly, the connections of Arravale skipped last week’s rich E.P. Taylor, which Arravale won last year over her home track, to run in this event.
Honey Ryder (1st): Honey Ryder’s two seconds against males in Grade 1 turf marathons this year show her quality. One of those races was the U.N. Handicap at Monmouth. Honey Ryder was a disappointment in the Beverly D at Arlington, but she did not run well in that race the previous year, so she may not care for the turf at Arlington. Honey Ryder has had success in the past over yielding ground.
Passage of Time (2nd): Simply Perfect and Passage of Time are the best of the European contingent in this race. The edge goes to Passage of Time who is better suited to the distance and who beat males in a Group 1 last year as juvenile. Surprisingly, Henry Cecil elects to use Ramon Dominguez as his rider.
Precious Kitten (3rd): Precious Kitten has had an excellent year. She prepped for this with a good second in the First Lady at Keeneland. Prior to that, she won the Mabee and Palomar Handicaps at Del Mar. Her ability to get the distance remains a question, but she has not indicated that the distance is outside her scope. If the turf course was not so saturated from the rain, I would have made her my top selection.
SPRINT
The entire complexion of the race changed with the scratch of Attila’s Storm, who was part of the scorching paces of the last two Sprints. The distance is too short for Commentator, as well as for Midnight Lute.
Talent Search (1st): The horse with the best early speed in the race. He tired at the end of the Vosburgh, but that was to be expected as he battled through blazing early fractions. He may have an easier time on the lead in this race. Talent Search owns a stakes win in his only appearance over this course.
Bordonaro (2nd): Bordonaro was very good last year, and finished a decent fourth in this race, but he seems to be missing something this year. His last three races were lackluster, but all came over artificial surfaces. An effort like his win in the Ancient Title last year, or his win in the 2006 Count Fleet, makes him competitive here.
Benny The Bull (3rd): Closed with a phenomenal rush in the Forego to finish second to Midnight Lute. This late runner thrives at six furlongs and figures to be an overlay.
MILE
This is the most wide-open Cup race this year, as a plausible case can be made for every entrant except the mare My Typhoon.
Cosmonaut (1st): Cosmonaut loves a turf course with some give to it. He has raced over a turf that has been less than firm three times in his career. He won the 2006 Arlington Handicap over soft turf, he finished a solid fourth in the 2006 Man O’ War over a good course, and he won the 2007 Arlington Handicap over a course labeled good. He ran well in defeat in his prep, the Shadwell Mile.
Kip Deville (2nd): Dutrow has done an excellent job getting him to relax in the early part of his races. This change in tactics allowed him to dominate this division earlier this year with wins in the Kilroe Mile and Maker’s Mark. Kip Deville’s tuneup in the Woodbine Mile was excellent. A note of caution that the turf condition may not be to his liking.
Host (3rd): Host is the most consistent closer in the field, and he probably would have hit the board in the 2005 Mile with a cleaner trip. Host had no chance to rally behind a slow pace in the Woodbine Mile.
DISTAFF
This will be a rider’s race as Hystericalady is the only consistent frontrunner, but there are many runners in here who sometimes like to go to the lead early in a race.
Ginger Punch (1st): Ginger Punch has quietly put together an impressive year by winning the Go For Wand and Ruffian Handicaps, and by just missing the win in the Phipps Handicap. She prepped for the Distaff with a respectable third in the Beldame.
Octave (2nd): Octave has not missed many dances this year. She has finished first or second in all but one of her 12 career starts, that one race being a close third in the Alabama. Octave does not win very often, but she always makes her impact felt, regardless of the company.
Balance (3rd): Balance lost all chance in the Beldame when she leapt at the start. She won the La Canada and Santa Margarita earlier this year, then ran okay in three consecutive races over Polytracks.
TURF
What this race lacks in quantity it makes up for in quality. Entering the starting gate will be the winners of the 2004 and 2006 editions of the Turf, as well as this year’s Arc winner. This will be English Channel’s third attempt to win this race. English Channel has won the Turf Classic twice and the United Nations twice, but I am still not convinced that his best turf distance is more than 11 furlongs.
Better Talk Now (1st): Better Talk Now has run well over soft turf courses in the past. His Turf win came over a yielding ground at Lone Star. Better Talk Now has been raced more sparingly this year and has not raced since July, but he has run well when fresh. Better Talk Now owns one win in four races over the turf at Monmouth, with the win being in the 2005 United Nations.
Grand Courtier (2nd): Grand Courtier beat English Channel in the Sword Dancer, but then he did not have much of a chance when closing from last in the Man O’ War. Grand Courtier owns some European backclass as he finished two lengths behind Arc winner Rail Link and one-quarter of a length behind Red Rocks in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last year.
Red Rocks (3rd): The defending champ has not been campaigned as much this year. Although he has finished fourth in two of his three European starts this year, he kept excellent company in both of those races and he remains highly rated in Europe.
CLASSIC
Hard Spun will be sent to the lead. Lawyer Ron may not run with him from the gate, but Velazquez will still be aggressive with Lawyer Ron early. Curlin has had a long season, with all eight of his career starts having come since February.
Street Sense (1st): Nafzger has not missed a beat when targeting major objectives for him. The Juvenile, Derby, and Travers were all won as planned. With only Lawyer Ron to his inside, Borel will be able to save as much ground as he wants. Street Sense had a dazzling work at Monmouth on Tuesday. Traffic problems are all that stand between him and the winner’s circle.
Any Given Saturday (2nd): He gave Street Sense a scare in the Tampa Bay Derby. Except for his troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby, he has not failed to run well all year. He was very impressive when winning the Haskell over Curlin.
Hard Spun (3rd): Hard Spun’s race in the Kentucky Derby was amazing as he set fast fractions and did not quit after Street Sense passed him. He also held well in the Preakness after setting a ridiculously fast pace. The winner will have to run him down in the stretch.
This edition boasts one of the weaker fields to ever enter the starting gate in this race. Proud Spell is undefeated after three starts, but while her Matron win was visually impressive, she won that race in a slow time. Indian Blessing romped in the Frizette after pushing quick early fractions. The pace figures to be softer this time, so this is her race to lose as the favorite, but this will be her first two-turn test.
Grace Anatomy (1st): She ran a deceptively good race in the Alcibiades when finishing a close third. After she broke slowly, Mike Smith elected not only to keep her wide into the first turn but also to let her move up quickly on the first turn in order to get closer to the lead. She settled down the backstretch, then put in a strong run while outside on the turn to take the lead entering the stretch. It is not surprising that she tired late after those early efforts. Dettori hops aboard.
Irish Smoke (2nd): Irish Smoke was an easy winner of the Spinaway as she was able to relax behind a rapid pace. She ran a horrible race in the Alcibiades, finishing last, but she has come back to work well in the interim.
A To The Croft (3rd): She has the look of a filly who will relish route racing. After breaking her maiden in her debut, A To The Croft has run a closing second in each of her next three races. Her extreme outside post does not help her chances, but her running style should allow her to drop behind the field and closer to the rail without losing too much ground on the first turn.
JUVENILE
Unlike its filly counterpart, the Juvenile has attracted an accomplished group of 2yos with bright futures. The Champagne appears to have been the toughest prep.
Pyro (1st): Pyro has the breeding and running style of a horse who should relish two turns. Even though a fast pace helped his rally for second in the Champagne, he nonetheless closed a great deal of ground in the stretch. He has lost two races to War Pass; he turns the tables in the Juvenile.
War Pass (2nd): This undefeated Zito runner bounded out to a big early lead through fast fractions in the Champagne and never looked back. Without much other quality early speed signed on in this race, War Pass should be able to set a comfortable pace. However, Tale of Ekati had a blazing work earlier in the week, so he may be too sharp to let War Pass get an easy lead.
Tale of Ekati (3rd): Tale of Ekati looked very professional making a rally along the inside to win the Futurity after experiencing gate trouble. Tagg was reportedly upset about his extremely fast four furlong workout this week.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
Nashoba’s Key is a vulnerable favorite. Although she is undefeated in seven career races, three of her four turf races have been restricted to California-breds. Interestingly, the connections of Arravale skipped last week’s rich E.P. Taylor, which Arravale won last year over her home track, to run in this event.
Honey Ryder (1st): Honey Ryder’s two seconds against males in Grade 1 turf marathons this year show her quality. One of those races was the U.N. Handicap at Monmouth. Honey Ryder was a disappointment in the Beverly D at Arlington, but she did not run well in that race the previous year, so she may not care for the turf at Arlington. Honey Ryder has had success in the past over yielding ground.
Passage of Time (2nd): Simply Perfect and Passage of Time are the best of the European contingent in this race. The edge goes to Passage of Time who is better suited to the distance and who beat males in a Group 1 last year as juvenile. Surprisingly, Henry Cecil elects to use Ramon Dominguez as his rider.
Precious Kitten (3rd): Precious Kitten has had an excellent year. She prepped for this with a good second in the First Lady at Keeneland. Prior to that, she won the Mabee and Palomar Handicaps at Del Mar. Her ability to get the distance remains a question, but she has not indicated that the distance is outside her scope. If the turf course was not so saturated from the rain, I would have made her my top selection.
SPRINT
The entire complexion of the race changed with the scratch of Attila’s Storm, who was part of the scorching paces of the last two Sprints. The distance is too short for Commentator, as well as for Midnight Lute.
Talent Search (1st): The horse with the best early speed in the race. He tired at the end of the Vosburgh, but that was to be expected as he battled through blazing early fractions. He may have an easier time on the lead in this race. Talent Search owns a stakes win in his only appearance over this course.
Bordonaro (2nd): Bordonaro was very good last year, and finished a decent fourth in this race, but he seems to be missing something this year. His last three races were lackluster, but all came over artificial surfaces. An effort like his win in the Ancient Title last year, or his win in the 2006 Count Fleet, makes him competitive here.
Benny The Bull (3rd): Closed with a phenomenal rush in the Forego to finish second to Midnight Lute. This late runner thrives at six furlongs and figures to be an overlay.
MILE
This is the most wide-open Cup race this year, as a plausible case can be made for every entrant except the mare My Typhoon.
Cosmonaut (1st): Cosmonaut loves a turf course with some give to it. He has raced over a turf that has been less than firm three times in his career. He won the 2006 Arlington Handicap over soft turf, he finished a solid fourth in the 2006 Man O’ War over a good course, and he won the 2007 Arlington Handicap over a course labeled good. He ran well in defeat in his prep, the Shadwell Mile.
Kip Deville (2nd): Dutrow has done an excellent job getting him to relax in the early part of his races. This change in tactics allowed him to dominate this division earlier this year with wins in the Kilroe Mile and Maker’s Mark. Kip Deville’s tuneup in the Woodbine Mile was excellent. A note of caution that the turf condition may not be to his liking.
Host (3rd): Host is the most consistent closer in the field, and he probably would have hit the board in the 2005 Mile with a cleaner trip. Host had no chance to rally behind a slow pace in the Woodbine Mile.
DISTAFF
This will be a rider’s race as Hystericalady is the only consistent frontrunner, but there are many runners in here who sometimes like to go to the lead early in a race.
Ginger Punch (1st): Ginger Punch has quietly put together an impressive year by winning the Go For Wand and Ruffian Handicaps, and by just missing the win in the Phipps Handicap. She prepped for the Distaff with a respectable third in the Beldame.
Octave (2nd): Octave has not missed many dances this year. She has finished first or second in all but one of her 12 career starts, that one race being a close third in the Alabama. Octave does not win very often, but she always makes her impact felt, regardless of the company.
Balance (3rd): Balance lost all chance in the Beldame when she leapt at the start. She won the La Canada and Santa Margarita earlier this year, then ran okay in three consecutive races over Polytracks.
TURF
What this race lacks in quantity it makes up for in quality. Entering the starting gate will be the winners of the 2004 and 2006 editions of the Turf, as well as this year’s Arc winner. This will be English Channel’s third attempt to win this race. English Channel has won the Turf Classic twice and the United Nations twice, but I am still not convinced that his best turf distance is more than 11 furlongs.
Better Talk Now (1st): Better Talk Now has run well over soft turf courses in the past. His Turf win came over a yielding ground at Lone Star. Better Talk Now has been raced more sparingly this year and has not raced since July, but he has run well when fresh. Better Talk Now owns one win in four races over the turf at Monmouth, with the win being in the 2005 United Nations.
Grand Courtier (2nd): Grand Courtier beat English Channel in the Sword Dancer, but then he did not have much of a chance when closing from last in the Man O’ War. Grand Courtier owns some European backclass as he finished two lengths behind Arc winner Rail Link and one-quarter of a length behind Red Rocks in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last year.
Red Rocks (3rd): The defending champ has not been campaigned as much this year. Although he has finished fourth in two of his three European starts this year, he kept excellent company in both of those races and he remains highly rated in Europe.
CLASSIC
Hard Spun will be sent to the lead. Lawyer Ron may not run with him from the gate, but Velazquez will still be aggressive with Lawyer Ron early. Curlin has had a long season, with all eight of his career starts having come since February.
Street Sense (1st): Nafzger has not missed a beat when targeting major objectives for him. The Juvenile, Derby, and Travers were all won as planned. With only Lawyer Ron to his inside, Borel will be able to save as much ground as he wants. Street Sense had a dazzling work at Monmouth on Tuesday. Traffic problems are all that stand between him and the winner’s circle.
Any Given Saturday (2nd): He gave Street Sense a scare in the Tampa Bay Derby. Except for his troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby, he has not failed to run well all year. He was very impressive when winning the Haskell over Curlin.
Hard Spun (3rd): Hard Spun’s race in the Kentucky Derby was amazing as he set fast fractions and did not quit after Street Sense passed him. He also held well in the Preakness after setting a ridiculously fast pace. The winner will have to run him down in the stretch.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Breeders' Cup Friday
FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
The field is topped by two very good 3yo fillies, Dream Rush and La Traviata, but once you get past them, the rest of the entrants are hard to separate. La Traviata, who blasted to big wins in all three of her starts, will be no worse than a close second betting choice. She is obviously talented, but she gives up too much in the area of racing experience to her opponents, and she figures to have a lot of company on the front end.
Dream Rush (1st): Dream Rush is more than capable of sitting just off a hot pace without compromising her chances. This Test winner may have run her most impressive race when she yielded late to be second in the Acorn after setting a very fast pace. Baroness Thatcher, third in the Test, confirmed the Test form when she returned three weeks later to lose the Ballerina by a nose against older fillies and mares.
Shaggy Mane (2nd): The speed of the speed. If La Traviata is taken back early, Shaggy Mane could find herself on an uncontested lead. Her last race was terrible, but she may have had an excuse as it was over the Tapeta surface, and she had also run poorly in her only other race over an artificial dirt surface. Biggest career win to date was a seven-length score in the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint last January.
Maryfield (3rd): Maryfield closed from midpack to win the Ballerina in her last start. Prior to that she ran a credible closing fourth in the Princess Rooney at Calder. The expected fast early fractions should flatter the off-the-pace running style that she has adopted this year.
JUVENILE TURF
This race figures to be easy pickings for the European runners. For a variety of reasons, one will seldom find top-class 2yo turf racing in the United States. In general, most of the promising 2yos with turf pedigrees are in Europe. The juveniles in the U.S. with solid turf pedigrees are often brought along slowly, with an eye on the rich turf stakes in the Summer for 3yos. The focus of American 2yo racing is on the dirt as owners and trainers try to sort out which runners are bound for the Triple Crown trail, with the turf kept as an option in case the dirt starts are less than encouraging.
Achill Island (1st): Ships across the Atlantic for Aidan O’Brien off a strong second in the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Ascot. O’Brien is quite skilled at preparing his runners for the Breeders’ Cup. Murtagh stays aboard, and Achill Island gets Lasix for the first time.
Strike The Deal (2nd): Although Strike The Deal seldom runs a bad race, he has only one win in six grass starts. Still, he has managed to run first or second three times against top company in England, including a second in the Group 1 Middle Park at Newmarket in his last race. One obvious disadvantage for Strike The Deal is that he has never run around a turn in a turf race, so he may have difficulty negotiating Monmouth’s tight bends. Dettori rides for the first time, and Strike The Deal gets Lasix for the first time.
Prussian (3rd): Prussian’s early speed gives him a tactical advantage against his ten rivals. A winner of both his starts, Prussian looked good winning the Summer Stakes at Woodbine last month. If Desormeaux can manage to get Prussian to relax behind the likely pacesetter Preachin Man, Prussian should be in the thick of the fight for the last furlong.
DIRT MILE
If Discreet Cat is anything close to what he was last year, he towers over this field. Even though Discreet Cat blazed through a five-furlong workout on Sunday, I’m thinking that he has lost his overwhelming edge as shown by his dull run in the Vosburgh when he barely got the show spot at 4-5.
Park Avenue Ball (1st): His 6 for 10 record at Monmouth shows his affinity for that oval, with one of his losses there being a respectable third in the 2005 Haskell. Park Avenue Ball is versatile enough to go to the lead if necessary or to take up a striking position behind a rapid tempo. The distance fits him perfectly, and his two sprint preps set him up well for this race.
Corinthian (2nd): Corinthian was poised to become a major player on the Triple Crown trail in 2006 after a decisive win in the Fountain of Youth. The victory was taken away from him by disqualification, and he subsequently went on the shelf. His productive early campaign this year was capped by a hard-fought win in the Met Mile. He followed that up with a terrible race in the Suburban. Given the rest of the summer off, he returned with a distant fourth in the Woodward at Saratoga. His Woodward race was better than it looks at first glance as he finished within only two lengths of the second-place horse Sun King behind runaway winner Lawyer Ron.
Wanderin Boy (3rd): Wanderin Boy is arguably the best dirt handicap horse in training who has never won a Grade 1 race. On occasion, such as when second to Invasor in the 2006 Pimlico Special or when second to Bernardini in the 2006 Jockey Club Gold Cup, Wanderin Boy has established that he is just a cut below the top level in his division. Wanderin Boy is very fast and does not need an easy lead in order to run a huge race. Gottcha Gold and High Finance look to be his main pace rivals.
The field is topped by two very good 3yo fillies, Dream Rush and La Traviata, but once you get past them, the rest of the entrants are hard to separate. La Traviata, who blasted to big wins in all three of her starts, will be no worse than a close second betting choice. She is obviously talented, but she gives up too much in the area of racing experience to her opponents, and she figures to have a lot of company on the front end.
Dream Rush (1st): Dream Rush is more than capable of sitting just off a hot pace without compromising her chances. This Test winner may have run her most impressive race when she yielded late to be second in the Acorn after setting a very fast pace. Baroness Thatcher, third in the Test, confirmed the Test form when she returned three weeks later to lose the Ballerina by a nose against older fillies and mares.
Shaggy Mane (2nd): The speed of the speed. If La Traviata is taken back early, Shaggy Mane could find herself on an uncontested lead. Her last race was terrible, but she may have had an excuse as it was over the Tapeta surface, and she had also run poorly in her only other race over an artificial dirt surface. Biggest career win to date was a seven-length score in the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint last January.
Maryfield (3rd): Maryfield closed from midpack to win the Ballerina in her last start. Prior to that she ran a credible closing fourth in the Princess Rooney at Calder. The expected fast early fractions should flatter the off-the-pace running style that she has adopted this year.
JUVENILE TURF
This race figures to be easy pickings for the European runners. For a variety of reasons, one will seldom find top-class 2yo turf racing in the United States. In general, most of the promising 2yos with turf pedigrees are in Europe. The juveniles in the U.S. with solid turf pedigrees are often brought along slowly, with an eye on the rich turf stakes in the Summer for 3yos. The focus of American 2yo racing is on the dirt as owners and trainers try to sort out which runners are bound for the Triple Crown trail, with the turf kept as an option in case the dirt starts are less than encouraging.
Achill Island (1st): Ships across the Atlantic for Aidan O’Brien off a strong second in the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Ascot. O’Brien is quite skilled at preparing his runners for the Breeders’ Cup. Murtagh stays aboard, and Achill Island gets Lasix for the first time.
Strike The Deal (2nd): Although Strike The Deal seldom runs a bad race, he has only one win in six grass starts. Still, he has managed to run first or second three times against top company in England, including a second in the Group 1 Middle Park at Newmarket in his last race. One obvious disadvantage for Strike The Deal is that he has never run around a turn in a turf race, so he may have difficulty negotiating Monmouth’s tight bends. Dettori rides for the first time, and Strike The Deal gets Lasix for the first time.
Prussian (3rd): Prussian’s early speed gives him a tactical advantage against his ten rivals. A winner of both his starts, Prussian looked good winning the Summer Stakes at Woodbine last month. If Desormeaux can manage to get Prussian to relax behind the likely pacesetter Preachin Man, Prussian should be in the thick of the fight for the last furlong.
DIRT MILE
If Discreet Cat is anything close to what he was last year, he towers over this field. Even though Discreet Cat blazed through a five-furlong workout on Sunday, I’m thinking that he has lost his overwhelming edge as shown by his dull run in the Vosburgh when he barely got the show spot at 4-5.
Park Avenue Ball (1st): His 6 for 10 record at Monmouth shows his affinity for that oval, with one of his losses there being a respectable third in the 2005 Haskell. Park Avenue Ball is versatile enough to go to the lead if necessary or to take up a striking position behind a rapid tempo. The distance fits him perfectly, and his two sprint preps set him up well for this race.
Corinthian (2nd): Corinthian was poised to become a major player on the Triple Crown trail in 2006 after a decisive win in the Fountain of Youth. The victory was taken away from him by disqualification, and he subsequently went on the shelf. His productive early campaign this year was capped by a hard-fought win in the Met Mile. He followed that up with a terrible race in the Suburban. Given the rest of the summer off, he returned with a distant fourth in the Woodward at Saratoga. His Woodward race was better than it looks at first glance as he finished within only two lengths of the second-place horse Sun King behind runaway winner Lawyer Ron.
Wanderin Boy (3rd): Wanderin Boy is arguably the best dirt handicap horse in training who has never won a Grade 1 race. On occasion, such as when second to Invasor in the 2006 Pimlico Special or when second to Bernardini in the 2006 Jockey Club Gold Cup, Wanderin Boy has established that he is just a cut below the top level in his division. Wanderin Boy is very fast and does not need an easy lead in order to run a huge race. Gottcha Gold and High Finance look to be his main pace rivals.
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