Breeders Cup Saturday

JUVENILE FILLIES

This edition boasts one of the weaker fields to ever enter the starting gate in this race. Proud Spell is undefeated after three starts, but while her Matron win was visually impressive, she won that race in a slow time. Indian Blessing romped in the Frizette after pushing quick early fractions. The pace figures to be softer this time, so this is her race to lose as the favorite, but this will be her first two-turn test.

Grace Anatomy (1st): She ran a deceptively good race in the Alcibiades when finishing a close third. After she broke slowly, Mike Smith elected not only to keep her wide into the first turn but also to let her move up quickly on the first turn in order to get closer to the lead. She settled down the backstretch, then put in a strong run while outside on the turn to take the lead entering the stretch. It is not surprising that she tired late after those early efforts. Dettori hops aboard.

Irish Smoke (2nd): Irish Smoke was an easy winner of the Spinaway as she was able to relax behind a rapid pace. She ran a horrible race in the Alcibiades, finishing last, but she has come back to work well in the interim.

A To The Croft (3rd): She has the look of a filly who will relish route racing. After breaking her maiden in her debut, A To The Croft has run a closing second in each of her next three races. Her extreme outside post does not help her chances, but her running style should allow her to drop behind the field and closer to the rail without losing too much ground on the first turn.

JUVENILE

Unlike its filly counterpart, the Juvenile has attracted an accomplished group of 2yos with bright futures. The Champagne appears to have been the toughest prep.

Pyro (1st): Pyro has the breeding and running style of a horse who should relish two turns. Even though a fast pace helped his rally for second in the Champagne, he nonetheless closed a great deal of ground in the stretch. He has lost two races to War Pass; he turns the tables in the Juvenile.

War Pass (2nd): This undefeated Zito runner bounded out to a big early lead through fast fractions in the Champagne and never looked back. Without much other quality early speed signed on in this race, War Pass should be able to set a comfortable pace. However, Tale of Ekati had a blazing work earlier in the week, so he may be too sharp to let War Pass get an easy lead.

Tale of Ekati (3rd): Tale of Ekati looked very professional making a rally along the inside to win the Futurity after experiencing gate trouble. Tagg was reportedly upset about his extremely fast four furlong workout this week.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

Nashoba’s Key is a vulnerable favorite. Although she is undefeated in seven career races, three of her four turf races have been restricted to California-breds. Interestingly, the connections of Arravale skipped last week’s rich E.P. Taylor, which Arravale won last year over her home track, to run in this event.

Honey Ryder (1st): Honey Ryder’s two seconds against males in Grade 1 turf marathons this year show her quality. One of those races was the U.N. Handicap at Monmouth. Honey Ryder was a disappointment in the Beverly D at Arlington, but she did not run well in that race the previous year, so she may not care for the turf at Arlington. Honey Ryder has had success in the past over yielding ground.

Passage of Time (2nd): Simply Perfect and Passage of Time are the best of the European contingent in this race. The edge goes to Passage of Time who is better suited to the distance and who beat males in a Group 1 last year as juvenile. Surprisingly, Henry Cecil elects to use Ramon Dominguez as his rider.

Precious Kitten (3rd): Precious Kitten has had an excellent year. She prepped for this with a good second in the First Lady at Keeneland. Prior to that, she won the Mabee and Palomar Handicaps at Del Mar. Her ability to get the distance remains a question, but she has not indicated that the distance is outside her scope. If the turf course was not so saturated from the rain, I would have made her my top selection.

SPRINT

The entire complexion of the race changed with the scratch of Attila’s Storm, who was part of the scorching paces of the last two Sprints. The distance is too short for Commentator, as well as for Midnight Lute.

Talent Search (1st): The horse with the best early speed in the race. He tired at the end of the Vosburgh, but that was to be expected as he battled through blazing early fractions. He may have an easier time on the lead in this race. Talent Search owns a stakes win in his only appearance over this course.

Bordonaro (2nd): Bordonaro was very good last year, and finished a decent fourth in this race, but he seems to be missing something this year. His last three races were lackluster, but all came over artificial surfaces. An effort like his win in the Ancient Title last year, or his win in the 2006 Count Fleet, makes him competitive here.

Benny The Bull (3rd): Closed with a phenomenal rush in the Forego to finish second to Midnight Lute. This late runner thrives at six furlongs and figures to be an overlay.

MILE

This is the most wide-open Cup race this year, as a plausible case can be made for every entrant except the mare My Typhoon.

Cosmonaut (1st): Cosmonaut loves a turf course with some give to it. He has raced over a turf that has been less than firm three times in his career. He won the 2006 Arlington Handicap over soft turf, he finished a solid fourth in the 2006 Man O’ War over a good course, and he won the 2007 Arlington Handicap over a course labeled good. He ran well in defeat in his prep, the Shadwell Mile.

Kip Deville (2nd): Dutrow has done an excellent job getting him to relax in the early part of his races. This change in tactics allowed him to dominate this division earlier this year with wins in the Kilroe Mile and Maker’s Mark. Kip Deville’s tuneup in the Woodbine Mile was excellent. A note of caution that the turf condition may not be to his liking.

Host (3rd): Host is the most consistent closer in the field, and he probably would have hit the board in the 2005 Mile with a cleaner trip. Host had no chance to rally behind a slow pace in the Woodbine Mile.

DISTAFF

This will be a rider’s race as Hystericalady is the only consistent frontrunner, but there are many runners in here who sometimes like to go to the lead early in a race.

Ginger Punch (1st): Ginger Punch has quietly put together an impressive year by winning the Go For Wand and Ruffian Handicaps, and by just missing the win in the Phipps Handicap. She prepped for the Distaff with a respectable third in the Beldame.

Octave (2nd): Octave has not missed many dances this year. She has finished first or second in all but one of her 12 career starts, that one race being a close third in the Alabama. Octave does not win very often, but she always makes her impact felt, regardless of the company.

Balance (3rd): Balance lost all chance in the Beldame when she leapt at the start. She won the La Canada and Santa Margarita earlier this year, then ran okay in three consecutive races over Polytracks.

TURF

What this race lacks in quantity it makes up for in quality. Entering the starting gate will be the winners of the 2004 and 2006 editions of the Turf, as well as this year’s Arc winner. This will be English Channel’s third attempt to win this race. English Channel has won the Turf Classic twice and the United Nations twice, but I am still not convinced that his best turf distance is more than 11 furlongs.

Better Talk Now (1st): Better Talk Now has run well over soft turf courses in the past. His Turf win came over a yielding ground at Lone Star. Better Talk Now has been raced more sparingly this year and has not raced since July, but he has run well when fresh. Better Talk Now owns one win in four races over the turf at Monmouth, with the win being in the 2005 United Nations.

Grand Courtier (2nd): Grand Courtier beat English Channel in the Sword Dancer, but then he did not have much of a chance when closing from last in the Man O’ War. Grand Courtier owns some European backclass as he finished two lengths behind Arc winner Rail Link and one-quarter of a length behind Red Rocks in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last year.

Red Rocks (3rd): The defending champ has not been campaigned as much this year. Although he has finished fourth in two of his three European starts this year, he kept excellent company in both of those races and he remains highly rated in Europe.

CLASSIC

Hard Spun will be sent to the lead. Lawyer Ron may not run with him from the gate, but Velazquez will still be aggressive with Lawyer Ron early. Curlin has had a long season, with all eight of his career starts having come since February.

Street Sense (1st): Nafzger has not missed a beat when targeting major objectives for him. The Juvenile, Derby, and Travers were all won as planned. With only Lawyer Ron to his inside, Borel will be able to save as much ground as he wants. Street Sense had a dazzling work at Monmouth on Tuesday. Traffic problems are all that stand between him and the winner’s circle.

Any Given Saturday (2nd): He gave Street Sense a scare in the Tampa Bay Derby. Except for his troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby, he has not failed to run well all year. He was very impressive when winning the Haskell over Curlin.

Hard Spun (3rd): Hard Spun’s race in the Kentucky Derby was amazing as he set fast fractions and did not quit after Street Sense passed him. He also held well in the Preakness after setting a ridiculously fast pace. The winner will have to run him down in the stretch.