Breeders' Cup Friday

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

The field is topped by two very good 3yo fillies, Dream Rush and La Traviata, but once you get past them, the rest of the entrants are hard to separate. La Traviata, who blasted to big wins in all three of her starts, will be no worse than a close second betting choice. She is obviously talented, but she gives up too much in the area of racing experience to her opponents, and she figures to have a lot of company on the front end.

Dream Rush (1st): Dream Rush is more than capable of sitting just off a hot pace without compromising her chances. This Test winner may have run her most impressive race when she yielded late to be second in the Acorn after setting a very fast pace. Baroness Thatcher, third in the Test, confirmed the Test form when she returned three weeks later to lose the Ballerina by a nose against older fillies and mares.

Shaggy Mane (2nd): The speed of the speed. If La Traviata is taken back early, Shaggy Mane could find herself on an uncontested lead. Her last race was terrible, but she may have had an excuse as it was over the Tapeta surface, and she had also run poorly in her only other race over an artificial dirt surface. Biggest career win to date was a seven-length score in the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint last January.

Maryfield (3rd): Maryfield closed from midpack to win the Ballerina in her last start. Prior to that she ran a credible closing fourth in the Princess Rooney at Calder. The expected fast early fractions should flatter the off-the-pace running style that she has adopted this year.

JUVENILE TURF

This race figures to be easy pickings for the European runners. For a variety of reasons, one will seldom find top-class 2yo turf racing in the United States. In general, most of the promising 2yos with turf pedigrees are in Europe. The juveniles in the U.S. with solid turf pedigrees are often brought along slowly, with an eye on the rich turf stakes in the Summer for 3yos. The focus of American 2yo racing is on the dirt as owners and trainers try to sort out which runners are bound for the Triple Crown trail, with the turf kept as an option in case the dirt starts are less than encouraging.

Achill Island (1st): Ships across the Atlantic for Aidan O’Brien off a strong second in the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Ascot. O’Brien is quite skilled at preparing his runners for the Breeders’ Cup. Murtagh stays aboard, and Achill Island gets Lasix for the first time.

Strike The Deal (2nd): Although Strike The Deal seldom runs a bad race, he has only one win in six grass starts. Still, he has managed to run first or second three times against top company in England, including a second in the Group 1 Middle Park at Newmarket in his last race. One obvious disadvantage for Strike The Deal is that he has never run around a turn in a turf race, so he may have difficulty negotiating Monmouth’s tight bends. Dettori rides for the first time, and Strike The Deal gets Lasix for the first time.

Prussian (3rd): Prussian’s early speed gives him a tactical advantage against his ten rivals. A winner of both his starts, Prussian looked good winning the Summer Stakes at Woodbine last month. If Desormeaux can manage to get Prussian to relax behind the likely pacesetter Preachin Man, Prussian should be in the thick of the fight for the last furlong.

DIRT MILE

If Discreet Cat is anything close to what he was last year, he towers over this field. Even though Discreet Cat blazed through a five-furlong workout on Sunday, I’m thinking that he has lost his overwhelming edge as shown by his dull run in the Vosburgh when he barely got the show spot at 4-5.

Park Avenue Ball (1st): His 6 for 10 record at Monmouth shows his affinity for that oval, with one of his losses there being a respectable third in the 2005 Haskell. Park Avenue Ball is versatile enough to go to the lead if necessary or to take up a striking position behind a rapid tempo. The distance fits him perfectly, and his two sprint preps set him up well for this race.

Corinthian (2nd): Corinthian was poised to become a major player on the Triple Crown trail in 2006 after a decisive win in the Fountain of Youth. The victory was taken away from him by disqualification, and he subsequently went on the shelf. His productive early campaign this year was capped by a hard-fought win in the Met Mile. He followed that up with a terrible race in the Suburban. Given the rest of the summer off, he returned with a distant fourth in the Woodward at Saratoga. His Woodward race was better than it looks at first glance as he finished within only two lengths of the second-place horse Sun King behind runaway winner Lawyer Ron.

Wanderin Boy (3rd): Wanderin Boy is arguably the best dirt handicap horse in training who has never won a Grade 1 race. On occasion, such as when second to Invasor in the 2006 Pimlico Special or when second to Bernardini in the 2006 Jockey Club Gold Cup, Wanderin Boy has established that he is just a cut below the top level in his division. Wanderin Boy is very fast and does not need an easy lead in order to run a huge race. Gottcha Gold and High Finance look to be his main pace rivals.