Met Mile: Lord Snowdon should pick up the pieces if Commentator throws in a clunker.
Shoemaker Mile: Hyperbaric.
Dallas Turf Cup: Going Ballistic.
Distaff Handicap: My Three Sisters.
Lone Star Hcp.: Encaustic
Monday, May 26, 2008
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Selections for Saturday, May 24
Louisville Handicap: Calvin Borel climbs aboard Brass Hat for the marathon Louisville, which can only help matters as Brass Hat had a ridiculously wide trip throughout the Elkhorn at Keeneland. I like the way Brass Hat fought back in the Elkhorn when Silverfoot, a winner of the Louisville three times, came charging up to him in the stretch. Lattice is winless since last year's American Derby, but he has been moving in the right direction coming into this race. Lattice gave a good account of himself when rallying to finish second against a very tough field in a slow-paced allowance at Keeneland.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Battle of the sexes in racing
Lost in all the finger pointing following the tragic breakdown of Eight Belles in the Derby is that fillies and mares have done well in limited opportunities against males in top American races over the past 25 years. The most obvious examples are Winning Colors in the Derby and Rags To Riches in the Belmont. But there are many more. Lady's Secret and Personal Ensign each won the Whitney in their respective Horse of the Year campaigns. All Along shipped to North American in the Fall of 1983 and went on a tear, winning the Rothman's at Woodbine, the Turf Classic, and the D.C. International on her way to Horse of the Year Honors. Estrapade was victorious in the 1986 Arlington Million and Oak Tree Invitational. Serena's Song won the Haskell and Jim Beam in 1985.
Fillies and males have especially shined against their male counterparts on Breeders' Cup Day. Pebbles won the 1985 Turf. Miss Alleged took top honors in the Turf in 1991. The Mile has been won by females five times: Royal Heroine (1984), Miesque (1987 and 1988), Ridgewood Pearl (1995), and Six Perfections (2004). They have done almost as well in the Sprint. Very Subtle won the Sprint in 1987, followed by Safely Kept in 1990, and Desert Stormer in 1995. Worth mentioning is that females have finished second in a remarkable eight runnings of the Sprint.
Interestingly, fillies and mares have been most successful against males in the big American events when those races have been sprints or on the turf.
Fillies and males have especially shined against their male counterparts on Breeders' Cup Day. Pebbles won the 1985 Turf. Miss Alleged took top honors in the Turf in 1991. The Mile has been won by females five times: Royal Heroine (1984), Miesque (1987 and 1988), Ridgewood Pearl (1995), and Six Perfections (2004). They have done almost as well in the Sprint. Very Subtle won the Sprint in 1987, followed by Safely Kept in 1990, and Desert Stormer in 1995. Worth mentioning is that females have finished second in a remarkable eight runnings of the Sprint.
Interestingly, fillies and mares have been most successful against males in the big American events when those races have been sprints or on the turf.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Kentucky Derby Day
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: Duveen was one of the better 3yo turf runners early last year. He headed to the shelf after a poor showing in the Virginia Derby, then was transferred to the Kiaran McLaughlin stable. Duveen ran well over this course last year, winning the Crown Royal American Turf on the Oaks undercard, and finishing second after experiencing trouble in the Jefferson Cup. Duveen often raced close to the lead last year, but the pace in those races tended to be slow, so I expect that Prado will keep him in the back half of the field to take full advantage of Duveen’s powerful late run.
Derby: Pyro (1st), Denis of Cork (2nd), Z Fortune (3rd), and Court Vision (4th).
I will start by throwing out the undefeated Florida Derby winner Big Brown. There is no question that Big Brown is incredibly talented, but he has raced only three times, so he lacks the necessary seasoning to win the Derby. In addition, his training has been compromised by his well-documented foot problems. Although there are not any one-dimensional speedballs in the race, Big Brown’s 20th post position almost guarantees that he will be caught very wide on the first turn.
Pyro’s strengths are numerous. He has an explosive burst of speed, Asmussen has given him a solid foundation to handle the demands of the Derby, A.P. Indy (grandsire) and Wild Again (broodmare sire) provide stamina in his bloodlines, and he has a win over the track. His Blue Grass performance was bad, but I am willing to overlook it because he may not have cared for the Polytrack and he obviously was not primed for that race. He has trained solidly in the interim, and his workout earlier this week was noteworthy not in its time but how he did it. Pyro was kept under stout restraint for most of the work, and when he was finally given a little chance to run toward the end, he showed his usual rapid acceleration. It was the type of work that indicated that he was back on track.
Denis of Cork has been lightly raced by design, so this will be only his second start in almost 80 days. Denis of Cork did not run much when fifth in the paceless Illinois Derby, but he has bounced back to train probably better than any of his competitors. He showed a liking for the track when rallying from far back to win his debut in November. Denis of Cork has a potent late kick, so if he can get a clean trip and the pace is honest, he will make an impact late.
Z Fortune has been the overlooked 3yo in the Asmussen barn as he has raced and trained in Pyro’s shadow. His win in the Lecomte was solid, and although he finished second in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby, those were probably the best losing efforts by any Derby contender this year. While there is no doubt Pyro was much the best in the Risen Star, Z Fortune may have run a better race than the winner in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune was four wide on both turns in the Arkansas Derby, and while the pace was solid, the speed held, making Z Fortune’s closing effort more difficult.
Court Vision gave notice of his talent late last year when he won the Iroquois at Churchill and the Remsen. He returned with a decent vision in the Fountain of Youth, but followed that with a disappointing close third in the Wood Memorial. That effort was disappointing because the hot pace should have flattered his closing style, but he failed to take advantage of it. Garrett Gomez elects to stay aboard, and Court Vision has trained well at Churchill.
Colonel John has distinguished himself against the best of his generation on the West Coast, is bred to handle the distance, and has trained well, but this will be his first start over a conventional dirt surface.
Derby: Pyro (1st), Denis of Cork (2nd), Z Fortune (3rd), and Court Vision (4th).
I will start by throwing out the undefeated Florida Derby winner Big Brown. There is no question that Big Brown is incredibly talented, but he has raced only three times, so he lacks the necessary seasoning to win the Derby. In addition, his training has been compromised by his well-documented foot problems. Although there are not any one-dimensional speedballs in the race, Big Brown’s 20th post position almost guarantees that he will be caught very wide on the first turn.
Pyro’s strengths are numerous. He has an explosive burst of speed, Asmussen has given him a solid foundation to handle the demands of the Derby, A.P. Indy (grandsire) and Wild Again (broodmare sire) provide stamina in his bloodlines, and he has a win over the track. His Blue Grass performance was bad, but I am willing to overlook it because he may not have cared for the Polytrack and he obviously was not primed for that race. He has trained solidly in the interim, and his workout earlier this week was noteworthy not in its time but how he did it. Pyro was kept under stout restraint for most of the work, and when he was finally given a little chance to run toward the end, he showed his usual rapid acceleration. It was the type of work that indicated that he was back on track.
Denis of Cork has been lightly raced by design, so this will be only his second start in almost 80 days. Denis of Cork did not run much when fifth in the paceless Illinois Derby, but he has bounced back to train probably better than any of his competitors. He showed a liking for the track when rallying from far back to win his debut in November. Denis of Cork has a potent late kick, so if he can get a clean trip and the pace is honest, he will make an impact late.
Z Fortune has been the overlooked 3yo in the Asmussen barn as he has raced and trained in Pyro’s shadow. His win in the Lecomte was solid, and although he finished second in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby, those were probably the best losing efforts by any Derby contender this year. While there is no doubt Pyro was much the best in the Risen Star, Z Fortune may have run a better race than the winner in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune was four wide on both turns in the Arkansas Derby, and while the pace was solid, the speed held, making Z Fortune’s closing effort more difficult.
Court Vision gave notice of his talent late last year when he won the Iroquois at Churchill and the Remsen. He returned with a decent vision in the Fountain of Youth, but followed that with a disappointing close third in the Wood Memorial. That effort was disappointing because the hot pace should have flattered his closing style, but he failed to take advantage of it. Garrett Gomez elects to stay aboard, and Court Vision has trained well at Churchill.
Colonel John has distinguished himself against the best of his generation on the West Coast, is bred to handle the distance, and has trained well, but this will be his first start over a conventional dirt surface.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Risk of posting selections early
I was very confident in Pure Clan's chances in the Oaks. My confidence was significantly lessened when I came home on Friday afternoon and realized that the track was sloppy and Elusive Lady, who was likely to press the pace, was scratched. I thought the she sloppy track and pace scenario would favor Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata, which is what I posted at the Starting Gate forum with around 12 minutes to post time: Post 10460: "The rain and the scratch of likely pace presser Elusive Lady has changed the complexion of the Oaks in favor of Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata."
I played Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata to win, and then used them as my keys in backup exactas, and I was pleased to get a generous 3-1 on Proud Spell.
Fair Grounds has once again shown that it is the place to prepare a filly for the Kentucky Oaks. Proud Spell joins Summerly, Ashado, Silverbulletday, Blushing K.D., Tiffany Lass as Fair Grounds winners who triumphed in the top race for 3yo fillies in America.
I played Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata to win, and then used them as my keys in backup exactas, and I was pleased to get a generous 3-1 on Proud Spell.
Fair Grounds has once again shown that it is the place to prepare a filly for the Kentucky Oaks. Proud Spell joins Summerly, Ashado, Silverbulletday, Blushing K.D., Tiffany Lass as Fair Grounds winners who triumphed in the top race for 3yo fillies in America.
Kentucky Oaks Day
Aegon Turf Sprint (5th): These turf sprints are often dominated by specialists. Salute the Count is 5 for 9 in turf sprints, including a minor stakes win at The Meadowlands. He is winless in three starts this year, but has been giving a good account of himself with his rallies falling short. In an optional claimer at GP in February, Salute The Count passed nine horses in less than a furlong. His last effort was an excellent second going six furlongs over Polytrack at Keeneland against a tough group of sprinters.
Edgewood (7th): Grace And Power was a top turf filly as a 2yo, and closed out her season with a strong second in the Hollywood Starlet. She has been working regularly at Fair Hill training center for trainer Steve Klesaris, who is very capable with horses coming off a layoff. Gypsy Baby is winless in two starts since coming to this country. However, in her last run, she closely furiously to miss against allowance foes at Kee. Garrett Gomez stays aboard Gypsy Baby.
Crown Royal American Turf (9th): Free Fighter was a smart winner of a Fair Grounds turf allowance in his 2008 debut in February. He next appeared in the off-the-turf Transylvania at Keeneland, when he ran a steady fifth while wide. He has drawn the rail in this event, and he should give a much better performance as he returns to turf.
Kentucky Oaks (10th): Pure Clan gave notice that she would be a major Oaks contender when she easily won the Pocahontas and Golden Rod to close out her 2yo season. She chased Eight Belles in vain in the Honeybee, and a change in racing tactics was not successful against Eight Belles in the Fantasy. Those two races were merely preps for the Oaks, and she will appreciate the added distance. The expected honest pace will suit her closing style.
Edgewood (7th): Grace And Power was a top turf filly as a 2yo, and closed out her season with a strong second in the Hollywood Starlet. She has been working regularly at Fair Hill training center for trainer Steve Klesaris, who is very capable with horses coming off a layoff. Gypsy Baby is winless in two starts since coming to this country. However, in her last run, she closely furiously to miss against allowance foes at Kee. Garrett Gomez stays aboard Gypsy Baby.
Crown Royal American Turf (9th): Free Fighter was a smart winner of a Fair Grounds turf allowance in his 2008 debut in February. He next appeared in the off-the-turf Transylvania at Keeneland, when he ran a steady fifth while wide. He has drawn the rail in this event, and he should give a much better performance as he returns to turf.
Kentucky Oaks (10th): Pure Clan gave notice that she would be a major Oaks contender when she easily won the Pocahontas and Golden Rod to close out her 2yo season. She chased Eight Belles in vain in the Honeybee, and a change in racing tactics was not successful against Eight Belles in the Fantasy. Those two races were merely preps for the Oaks, and she will appreciate the added distance. The expected honest pace will suit her closing style.
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