Kentucky Derby Day

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: Duveen was one of the better 3yo turf runners early last year. He headed to the shelf after a poor showing in the Virginia Derby, then was transferred to the Kiaran McLaughlin stable. Duveen ran well over this course last year, winning the Crown Royal American Turf on the Oaks undercard, and finishing second after experiencing trouble in the Jefferson Cup. Duveen often raced close to the lead last year, but the pace in those races tended to be slow, so I expect that Prado will keep him in the back half of the field to take full advantage of Duveen’s powerful late run.

Derby: Pyro (1st), Denis of Cork (2nd), Z Fortune (3rd), and Court Vision (4th).

I will start by throwing out the undefeated Florida Derby winner Big Brown. There is no question that Big Brown is incredibly talented, but he has raced only three times, so he lacks the necessary seasoning to win the Derby. In addition, his training has been compromised by his well-documented foot problems. Although there are not any one-dimensional speedballs in the race, Big Brown’s 20th post position almost guarantees that he will be caught very wide on the first turn.

Pyro’s strengths are numerous. He has an explosive burst of speed, Asmussen has given him a solid foundation to handle the demands of the Derby, A.P. Indy (grandsire) and Wild Again (broodmare sire) provide stamina in his bloodlines, and he has a win over the track. His Blue Grass performance was bad, but I am willing to overlook it because he may not have cared for the Polytrack and he obviously was not primed for that race. He has trained solidly in the interim, and his workout earlier this week was noteworthy not in its time but how he did it. Pyro was kept under stout restraint for most of the work, and when he was finally given a little chance to run toward the end, he showed his usual rapid acceleration. It was the type of work that indicated that he was back on track.

Denis of Cork has been lightly raced by design, so this will be only his second start in almost 80 days. Denis of Cork did not run much when fifth in the paceless Illinois Derby, but he has bounced back to train probably better than any of his competitors. He showed a liking for the track when rallying from far back to win his debut in November. Denis of Cork has a potent late kick, so if he can get a clean trip and the pace is honest, he will make an impact late.

Z Fortune has been the overlooked 3yo in the Asmussen barn as he has raced and trained in Pyro’s shadow. His win in the Lecomte was solid, and although he finished second in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby, those were probably the best losing efforts by any Derby contender this year. While there is no doubt Pyro was much the best in the Risen Star, Z Fortune may have run a better race than the winner in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune was four wide on both turns in the Arkansas Derby, and while the pace was solid, the speed held, making Z Fortune’s closing effort more difficult.

Court Vision gave notice of his talent late last year when he won the Iroquois at Churchill and the Remsen. He returned with a decent vision in the Fountain of Youth, but followed that with a disappointing close third in the Wood Memorial. That effort was disappointing because the hot pace should have flattered his closing style, but he failed to take advantage of it. Garrett Gomez elects to stay aboard, and Court Vision has trained well at Churchill.

Colonel John has distinguished himself against the best of his generation on the West Coast, is bred to handle the distance, and has trained well, but this will be his first start over a conventional dirt surface.