Selections for Friday, Dec. 26

4th at FG: Take A Day.

7th at FG: Grapelli.

8th at FG: Diamond in Sauce.

9th at FG: Gangbuster.

Sir Beaufort: Daokota Phone.

Malibu: Nownownow.

Champions Day Selections

Juvenile: Cocktail Clarence.

Lassie: Master Link.

Turf: Wild Rally.

Classic: Snug.

Sprint: Meteor Impact.

Selections for Saturday, Dec. 6th

Pago Hop: Rose of Killarney.

My Charmer: Cozzi Capital.

Tropical Turf: Minister's Joy.

Native Diver: Racketeer.

Hollywood Turf Cup: Winchester.

Selections for Delta Downs, Friday, December 5th

Sam's Town (5th Race): Coach Ryan.

Delta Princess: Just Jenda.

Orleans (7th Race): Sheza Botha Ours.

Delta Jackpot: Skipadate.

Selections for Friday, Nov. 30

9th race at Fair Grounds: Sweetness 'N Light.

10th race at Fair Grounds: John's Brown Bear.

Matriarch: Roshani.

Hollywood Derby: Sailor's Cap.

Selections for Saturday, Nov. 29

Remsen: Old Fashiond.

Cigar Mile: Harlem Rocker.

Golden Rod: War Echo.

Caressing: Sugar Mom.

Kentucky Jockey Club: Zion.

Tenacious: Stones River.

Selections for Friday, Nov. 28

Top Flight Hcp: Boca Grande.

Citations Hcp: Medici Code.

Selection for Saturday, Nov. 15

Cardinal Hcp-Ballymore Lady.

Selections for Fair Grounds Opening Day

2nd Race: Rome Is Burning.

6th Race: Doc Of The Bay.

7th Race: Cajun Conquest.

8th Race: Tears I Cry.

9th Race: Go Atm.

Selections for Breeders Cup Saturday

MARATHON
Sixties Icon is the 2-1 morning line favorite. While he thrives at 12 furlongs, he has raced exclusively on turf and he broke poorly in his last two races.

Muhannak (1st) has had some success racing long distances over Polytrack in England and Ireland. There is no doubt that he can handle the trip.

Zappa (2nd) is the speed of the race. He wired the field in a stakes going 12 furlongs at Del Mar, and he will try to do the same in the Marathon. Zappa also won the only other time that he was on the lead at the first call, which was in an 11 furlong starter handicap at Fairplex Park.

Delightful Kiss (3rd) has a strong late kick and won his only two starts over synthetic dirt surfaces.

TURF SPRINT
This is not the typical turf sprint as experienced by many of the starters in their careers. The distance of 6.5 furlongs is slightly longer than most turf sprint stakes, and most of the race will be run over the unusual downhill course at Santa Anita. The pace will be very fast with California Flag, Desert Code, and Mr. Nightlinger all vying for the early lead. The large field will lead to traffic problems for some. Fleeting Spirit, a 3yo filly from Europe, is accustomed to large fields, but she has never been around a turn in any of her eight starts.

Get Funky (1st) has won twice in three starts when sprinting over this course. His rivals may match his talent level, but he is at his best in turf sprints at Santa Anita.

Storm Treasure (2nd) will be flying late as he has been a strong closer at middle-distance turf races. His lack of early foot may cause him to lose contact with the field.

Desert Code (3rd) can count three wins from five starts when sprinting over this course. He was dull in his prep in the Morvich, but in that race he was too close to the rapid pace set by the winner California Flag.

DIRT MILE
Well Armed (1st) is in the proper Cup race as ten panels is at the far end of his range. His loss by a neck in the Pacific Classic and his distant third to Curlin in the Dubai World Cup were very good efforts, but Well Armed is best at shorter routes. Well Armed has excellent tactical speed, which will serve him well in this race. He wired the fields in the San Antonio and San Diego Handicaps, and he came from just off the pace when winning the Goodwood.

Albertus Maximus (2nd) has rapidly improved since being transferred to the Vladimir Cerin barn this summer. His closing effort to be third in the Goodwood sets him up nicely for this event.

Surf Cat (3rd) is a versatile runner who has won Grade 2 stakes at 6.5, 7, 8.5, and 9 furlongs. The mile suits him, and he is favorably drawn in the second post position.


MILE
Although this field is not loaded with runners who come flying from the gate, there are a number of entrants who like to be on or near the lead in the first furlong. Defending champ Kip Deville is two for two over this course, but he has been lightly campaigned this year.

Goldikova (1st) will be in a good position to take advantage of any pace meltdown that may occur. This 3yo filly is one of the better milers in Europe, having taken the Prix du Moulin in her last effort. Despite stumbling at the break, Goldikova finished within two lengths of Arc winner Zarkava when she faced her in the French 1,000 Guineas.

Daytona (2nd) is one tough turf miler, as he is more than capable of pressing or setting a hot pace and still ending up in the winner’s circle. Daytona is three for three at Santa Anita.

Whatsthescript (3rd) has a quick burst of speed in the stretch, which may give him an edge against some of the other closers. He breaks from an outside post position, but Garrett Gomez should be able to navigate him closer to the inside.

JUVENILE
The connections of Group 1 winner Bushranger must be very high on their horse in order to pass up the $1 million Juvenile Turf in favor of this race.

Munnings (1st) is one of only three runners in the field who has been first at the initial call in any of his races. Munnings has drawn the rail and will be forwardly placed. He stalked a fast pace while three wide in the Champagne, yet still continued on well to be second.

Midshipman (2nd) won the Del Mar Futurity, then closed with a flourish to finish a good second in the Norfolk. He should move forward with a two-turn race under his belt, and there is a rider switch to Garrett Gomez.

Square Eddie (3rd) bounded to an easy win in the Breeders’ Futurity in his American debut.


JUVENILE TURF
Of the three challengers from Europe, Westphalia, winner of the Group 2 Champagne at Doncaster, is the most highly regarded.

Grand Adventure (1st) generally stays close to the pace and has a potent late kick. He made a bold wide run to seize control of the Summer at Woodbine and may have won by a bigger margin if his jockey had not dropped the whip.

Bittel Road (2nd) narrowly beat Skipadate in a minor turf stakes at Saratoga. In his next race, Bittel Road put in a big late run to win the Bourbon at Keeneland. He is versatile, as he showed when he essentially wired the field in his debut in a turf sprint at Saratoga. Having raced exclusively over the grass, Bittel Road is undefeated in three career starts.

Skipadate (3rd) closed strongly in the Summer, but was unable to outsprint rival Grand Adventure.


SPRINT
The most likely pace scenario is for Fabulous Strike to head to the front and to be hounded by Black Seventeen, Fatal Bullet, and First Defence. Cost of Freedom will try to keep up, but is not fast enough.

Street Boss (1st) has won six of his last eight races, loves this track, and will be flying late.

Midnight Lute (2nd) is the defending champion. He never picked up his feet while finishing 10th in the Pat O’Brien in his only start of the year, but this is his home track, and he has a history of delivering a top effort when fresh, so he should give a good account of himself.

First Defence (3rd) flopped in the Vosburgh, when he may not have cared for the sealed track. His better efforts make him competitive in this spot.


TURF
The Europeans are out in force with a tough contingent. Two past winners, Better Talk Now and Red Rocks, are in the field. Red Rock Canyon has been entered by Aidan O’Brien as a rabbit.

Eagle Mountain (1st) finished second, three lengths ahead of Soldier of Fortune, in the 2007 Epsom Derby, but Soldier of Fortune turned the tables in the Irish Derby. Eagle Mountain closed out his season last year by losing the photo in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. In his only start this year, he tuned up for this race with a score in a Group 3 at Newmarket.

Winchester (2nd) ran a huge race to dominate the Secretariat in his only U.S. start. Although he is not as highly rated as some of the other Europeans in this race, he obviously relished the firm going that he found at Arlington Park. His winning time in the Secretariat was 2/5ths of a second faster than the time of the Arlington Million.

Soldier of Fortune (3rd) has been lightly raced this year, and was last seen finishing in a dead-heat for third in the Arc.


CLASSIC
Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator, and Raven’s Pass, who together have won an incredible 10 Group 1s this year, have traveled across the Atlantic to take a shot at Curlin. Of the three, Raven’s Pass has the breeding that is best suited for dirt racing, as he is by Elusive Quality and out of a Lord at War mare.

Raven’s Pass (1st) finally bested his rival Henrythenavigator when winning the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot. With his American breeding influences, he should have no problem handling the switch to dirt. Raven’s Pass will run on Lasix for the first time, and his trainer John Gosden is very familiar with running horses at Santa Anita.

Curlin (2nd) is the best horse in the world on a conventional dirt track. Curlin has a history of doing something better when he does it for a second time, which explains why he was shipped to Dubai early to get in a prep for the World Cup. Curlin does not have the benefit of a trial run this time, as this will be his first race in California and over a synthetic dirt surface.

Casino Drive (3rd) had only one start to his credit when he shipped to New York from Japan and won the Peter Pan in convincing fashion. He has had only one start since, a useful allowance win two weeks ago at Santa Anita.

Selections for Breeders' Cup Friday

A good starting point for my analysis is a brief history of some of the different types of synthetic dirt surfaces that have been used at Santa Anita. Santa Anita installed Cushion Track prior to the 2007 Oak Tree meeting. Cushion Track was also installed at Hollywood Park. Cushion Track worked fine at Santa Anita until heavy rains hit in January of 2008, and the track did not drain properly, forcing Santa Anita to cancel racing for several days. In early February of this year, a different brand of synthetic track, Pro Ride, was blended into the surface. After the winter-spring meet ended, the Cushion Track was completely removed and replaced with Pro Ride. Cushion Track and Pro Ride are not be confused with Polytrack, which is used at Arlington, Del Mar, Keeneland, Turfway Park, and Woodbine. Golden Gate Fields uses Tapeta.


FILLY AND MARE SPRINT: Indian Blessing is a spectacular filly, but her only effort over a synthetic dirt surface last January was not even close to one of her better races. Granted, that was over Cushion Track, and not Pro Ride. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to take such low odds on her when her ability to handle the surface is a big question. Ventura, an accomplished runner on the grass, won the Madison at Keeneland, but will start from a far outside post.

Tiz Elemental (1st) has been competitive at this level all year. In April, she beat Intagaroo in the Las Flores at Santa Anita. She is a bargain at anything close to her 20-1 morning line.

Intagaroo (2nd) has won three Grade 1 stakes at this distance this year. She has not raced since winning the Ballerina at Saratoga in late August, but she runs well fresh.

Zaftig (3rd) blasted past Indian Blessing to win the Acorn in June. That was her last start. The layoff and her lack of racing experience over synthetic surfaces present concerns, but she likes the distance and the pace should be honest enough to suit her running style.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: This race did not attract the toughest group of European challengers. There is not a single Group stakes winner among the three invaders from across the Atlantic.

Laragh (1st) set a very fast pace before tiring late in the Natalma at Woodbine in her first grass start. She next appeared in the Jessamine at Keeneland, where she set fairly fast fractions on her way to a big victory.

Consequence (2nd) won a turf sprint at Saratoga in her debut. She followed that up with a wide closing effort to be 4th in the Miss Grillo at Belmont.

Heart Shaped (3rd) has some respectable efforts against good company in England and Ireland for Aidan O’Brien.


JUVENILE FILLIES: The winners of all the major route races for 2yo fillies appear in this event. Doremifasollatido was a professional winner of the Matron, but she is stuck in the 13th post position and will likely be caught very wide on the run into the first turn.

Van Lear Rose (1st) rallied strongly to win the two-turn Mazarine at Woodbine in her last start. Her top speed figure is not far behind some of her more highly-regarded competitors, she has drawn a favorable post, and she is 30-1 on the morning line.

C.S. Silk (2nd) set a rapid pace going wire-to-wire for a victory in the Arlington-Washington Lassie. There is not much early speed in this race, so Albarado may try to steal it on the front end. Her early foot also gives her a tactical edge in this large field.

Stardom Bound (3rd) was much the best in the Oak Leaf. Prior to that race, this closer won the Del Mar Debutante.


FILLY AND MARE TURF: The pace should be reasonable with Dynaforce and Folk Opera vying for the early lead, and Wait A While sitting right behind that pair.

Halfway to Heaven (1st) has kept top company in Europe during her short career. Winner of three Group 1 events this year, this 3yo filly also finished a close third to Zarkava in the French One Thousand Guineas. Halfway to Heaven has occasionally raced on the lead in Europe, so she should take up a striking position not far off the pacesetters.

Pure Clan (2nd) may be the forgotten filly in this race. Winner of four of her five career turf starts, she was victorious in the Regret and American Oaks earlier this year. Her only turf loss was a good second while experiencing a bit of trouble in the Garden City at Belmont.

Mauralakana (3rd) has done little wrong this year while winning more than $1 million. A heavy favorite in the Flower Bowl, she faced the difficult task of trying to outsprint winner Dynaforce after that one was allowed to set slow fractions on an unchallenged lead.



LADIES CLASSIC: Hystericalady, second in this race in 2007, set soft fractions in the last two editions of the Lady’s Secret. In 2007, she lost the Lady’s Secret by a nose. This year, Zenyatta flew past her late to win going away. Hystericalady will likely try the same front-running tactics in this race. The riders aboard Bear Now and defending champion Ginger Punch will take up stalking positions behind Hystericalady. Ginger Punch does not appear nearly as strong as she did last year, and although she has won five of seven starts in 2008, she has had to work hard for some of those victories. Carriage Trail ran a huge race in the Spinster, but she drifted out badly in the stretch.

Zenyatta (1st) towers over this field. Slow pace, fast pace, it does not matter. She gallops near the rear of the field, then uncorks a powerful stretch run. The relatively small field is in her favor as she will likely avoid significant traffic trouble.

Cocoa Beach (2nd) ran a remarkable race when reeling in Ginger Punch in the Beldame. Over a sealed track at Belmont, Cocoa Beach was able to wear down Ginger Punch after that one waltzed through the opening fractions.

Music Note (3rd) was an easy victor of the Mother Goose, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Gazelle this year. She has good tactical speed and will try to get the jump on Zenyatta.

Selections for Saturday, October 4th

Champagne: Cribnote.

Frizette: Persistently.

Jamaica: Wesley.

EP Taylor: Folk Opera.

Canadian International: Quijano.

Phoenix: Emirates to Dubai.

Woodford: Starvinsky.

Breeders’ Futurity: Majestic Blue.

Shadwell Turf Mile: French Beret.

TCOA: Wild Gams.

Indiana Derby: Famous Patriot.

Selections for Friday, October 3rd

First Lady: Forever Together.

Alcibiades: Be Smart.

Stakes Selections for Saturday, September 20

Vosburgh: Kodiak Kowboy.

Turf Classic: Dancing Forever.

Jockey Club Gold Cup: Stones River.

Turf Amazon (Pha): Weeks.

Gallant Bob: Lantana Mob.

Indian Maid (Haw): Ciao.

Robert Carey Hcp (Haw): Galantas.

Kentucky Cup Sprint: Nautical Storm.

Kentucky Cup Juvenile: West Side Bernie.

Fair Grounds Stakes Schedule for 2008-2009 meet

The stakes schedule released today shows significant reductions to the purses of some of the more important stakes at Fair Grounds. Hopefully the racing office is simply being overly conservative when it comes to stakes purses.

Here are some of the stakes with reduced purses, with last year's purse in parentheses.

Esplanade: $60,000 ($100,000)
Bonapaw: $60,000 ($100,000)
Letellier: $60,000 ($100,000)
Sugar Bowl: $60,000 ($100,000)

Leggio: $75,000 ($100,000)
Gaudin: $75,000 ($100,000)
Louisiana Hcp: $75,000 ($100,000)
Tiffany Lass: $75,000 ($100,000)

Pan Zareta: $75,000 ($100,000)
Colonel Power: $75,000 ($100,000)
Mineshaft: $125,000 ($150,000)
Silverbulletday: $150,000 ($200,000)
Risen Star: $200,000 ($300,000)

Selections for Saturday, September 20

Happy Ticket: Splash of Roses.

(Not so) Super Derby: Golden Yank.

Unbridled: Knockout Artist.

Mass' Cap: Won Awesome Dude.

Selections for Saturday, Sept. 13

Arlington-Washington Futurity: Terrain.

Monmouth Stakes: Proudinsky.

KY Cup Turf Dash: Hold The Salt.

KY Cup Ladies Turf: Meribel.

KY Cup Turf: Stream of Gold.

Travers Day

The Travers has lived up to its billing as the Mid-Summer Derby or the Fourth Leg of the Triple Crown. With the exception of Big Brown, the who's who of the 3yo crop has shown up for the race.
I love Mambo in Seattle, but he figures to attract too much action at the windows. In this evenly matched field, Tale of Ekati and Cool Coal Man offer the most value, and I will play both.

Victory Ride: Porte Bonheur.

Baruch: Shakis.

King's Bishop: Visionaire.

Selections for Saturday, August 16

Sword Dancer-Grand Courtier.

Iselin-Honest Man.

Gardenia Hcp (Ellis)-Unforgotten.

Evangeline Mile-Ide Like a Double.

Prelude (LaD)-Star Production.

Honeymoon (LaD)-Perfect Motion.

Arlington Million Day

Beverly D-Meribel. I'm looking for a speed duel to develop between Dreaming of Anna and Rosinka, with Meribel using her potent late kick to win the race in the final strides. In her last start, Rosinka lost a rich turf stakes at Delaware as a 1-5 favorite after Cornelio Velasquez allowed Rosinka to be pressed through fast splits. While that loss could cause Corenelio to be a little shy about engaging Dreaming of Anna early, Rosinka breaks right outside of Anna and Cornelio knows he can't let Anna and Garrett Gomez get away through soft fractions.

Arlington Million-Einstein and Stream Cat. The scratch of Sudan works in Einstein's favor, as no remaining runner likes to run on the lead. Albarado will either send Einstein to the front or have him sit off the flank of the pacesetter through very slow fractions. Einstein stayed reasonably close to the lead in the Donn and Stephen Foster Handicaps, so what he experiences early in the Million will be a stroll in the park. The distance will be no problem as Einstein is even capable at the longer distance of 11 furlongs, with a win in the 2008 GP Park Turf and close third in the 2007 edition of that race behind Jambalya and Honey Ryder. Stream Cat just missed in last year's Million, and enters this race off an impressive win in the Arlington Handicap.

It was a very good weekend for 3yos who were based at Fair Grounds

On Saturday, Storm Mesa won the San Clemente (Gr. 2) at Del Mar in her first turf race. Eddie Martin was aboard for Bret Calhoun. The filly has now one five straight going back to breaking her maiden at Fair Grounds in March.

On Sunday, Macho Again and Pyro ran one-two in the Jim Dandy (Gr.2). For good measure, Louisiana Derby also-ran Tale of Ekati finished fourth. Winning trainer Dallas Stewart showed the high esteem in which he holds the Louisiana Derby when he commented after the race: "He beat the Belmont winner and the Louisiana Derby winner." Dallas didn't mention that Macho Again had also beaten the winners of the Wood Memorial and Dwyer.

Earlier on the Jim Dandy card, Mambo in Seattle won an unlisted stakes for Neil Howard. It should be noted that the winning time was faster than Macho Again's time in the Jim Dandy. Mambo in Seattle never raced at Fair Grounds, but trained there this winter before becoming injured.

Selections for Sunday, July 27

Jim Dandy: Tale of Ekati.

Bing Crosby: Silver Stetson Man.

Selections for Saturday, July 26

Diana Hcp: Criminologist and Bit of Whimsy.

Vanderbilt Hcp: Black Seventeen.

Whitney: Merchant Marine and A.P. Arrow.

Sea O'Erin: Demarcation.

Selections for Saturday, July 19

Virginia Oaks: Cherokee Queen.

Virginia Derby: Your Round.

Princess (LaD): Run Don't Stroll.

Minstrel(LaD): Closing Prayer.

Selections for Saturday, July 5

Salvator Mile: Notional.

United Nations: Strike A Deal.

American Oaks: My Baby Baby.

Triple Bend: Desert Code.

Selections for Saturday, June 28

Suburban: Merchant Marine.

American: Heroi Do Bafra.

Hollywood Gold Cup: Tiago.

Chicago Hcp: Indescribable.

King Edward (Woodbine): French Beret.

Belmont Stakes Day Selections

True North: Suave Jazz

Just A Game: Lady of Venice.

Acorn: Zaftig.

Woody Stephens: Groomedforvictory.

Manhattan: Stream of Gold.

Belmont: Big Brown (1st), Anak Nakal (2nd), Tale of Ekati (3rd).

Will the rail post position cost Big Brown the Triple Crown

Except for a short period in the Preakness, Big Brown has not had to race behind and to the inside of other horses in a dirt race. He has not experienced having dirt kicked in his face for a long time in any dirt race. How he will react is anyone's guess. He may not like it and could expend too much energy too early in the Belmont fighting Desormeaux.

This is what Dutrow had to say after the Belmont post position draw: "I just can't see the post getting him beat," Dutrow said. "If he breaks good out of the 1 hole, it will be to our advantage. And if he doesn't, he has plenty of time to get out of there. There's no way a post position is going to get Big Brown beat." Reading between the lines, I think Dutrow wants Big Brown either on or close enough to the lead that a competitor cannot drop over in front of him. If that is not possible, he wants Kent to work his way to the outside as soon as possible. True, staying outside decreases the chances of traffic troubles. But when you have the best horse on paper, you shouldn't be too concerned about early traffic problems in a 12 furlong race.

Memorial Day Picks

Met Mile: Lord Snowdon should pick up the pieces if Commentator throws in a clunker.

Shoemaker Mile: Hyperbaric.

Dallas Turf Cup: Going Ballistic.

Distaff Handicap: My Three Sisters.

Lone Star Hcp.: Encaustic

Selections for Saturday, May 24

Louisville Handicap: Calvin Borel climbs aboard Brass Hat for the marathon Louisville, which can only help matters as Brass Hat had a ridiculously wide trip throughout the Elkhorn at Keeneland. I like the way Brass Hat fought back in the Elkhorn when Silverfoot, a winner of the Louisville three times, came charging up to him in the stretch. Lattice is winless since last year's American Derby, but he has been moving in the right direction coming into this race. Lattice gave a good account of himself when rallying to finish second against a very tough field in a slow-paced allowance at Keeneland.

Battle of the sexes in racing

Lost in all the finger pointing following the tragic breakdown of Eight Belles in the Derby is that fillies and mares have done well in limited opportunities against males in top American races over the past 25 years. The most obvious examples are Winning Colors in the Derby and Rags To Riches in the Belmont. But there are many more. Lady's Secret and Personal Ensign each won the Whitney in their respective Horse of the Year campaigns. All Along shipped to North American in the Fall of 1983 and went on a tear, winning the Rothman's at Woodbine, the Turf Classic, and the D.C. International on her way to Horse of the Year Honors. Estrapade was victorious in the 1986 Arlington Million and Oak Tree Invitational. Serena's Song won the Haskell and Jim Beam in 1985.

Fillies and males have especially shined against their male counterparts on Breeders' Cup Day. Pebbles won the 1985 Turf. Miss Alleged took top honors in the Turf in 1991. The Mile has been won by females five times: Royal Heroine (1984), Miesque (1987 and 1988), Ridgewood Pearl (1995), and Six Perfections (2004). They have done almost as well in the Sprint. Very Subtle won the Sprint in 1987, followed by Safely Kept in 1990, and Desert Stormer in 1995. Worth mentioning is that females have finished second in a remarkable eight runnings of the Sprint.

Interestingly, fillies and mares have been most successful against males in the big American events when those races have been sprints or on the turf.

Kentucky Derby Day

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: Duveen was one of the better 3yo turf runners early last year. He headed to the shelf after a poor showing in the Virginia Derby, then was transferred to the Kiaran McLaughlin stable. Duveen ran well over this course last year, winning the Crown Royal American Turf on the Oaks undercard, and finishing second after experiencing trouble in the Jefferson Cup. Duveen often raced close to the lead last year, but the pace in those races tended to be slow, so I expect that Prado will keep him in the back half of the field to take full advantage of Duveen’s powerful late run.

Derby: Pyro (1st), Denis of Cork (2nd), Z Fortune (3rd), and Court Vision (4th).

I will start by throwing out the undefeated Florida Derby winner Big Brown. There is no question that Big Brown is incredibly talented, but he has raced only three times, so he lacks the necessary seasoning to win the Derby. In addition, his training has been compromised by his well-documented foot problems. Although there are not any one-dimensional speedballs in the race, Big Brown’s 20th post position almost guarantees that he will be caught very wide on the first turn.

Pyro’s strengths are numerous. He has an explosive burst of speed, Asmussen has given him a solid foundation to handle the demands of the Derby, A.P. Indy (grandsire) and Wild Again (broodmare sire) provide stamina in his bloodlines, and he has a win over the track. His Blue Grass performance was bad, but I am willing to overlook it because he may not have cared for the Polytrack and he obviously was not primed for that race. He has trained solidly in the interim, and his workout earlier this week was noteworthy not in its time but how he did it. Pyro was kept under stout restraint for most of the work, and when he was finally given a little chance to run toward the end, he showed his usual rapid acceleration. It was the type of work that indicated that he was back on track.

Denis of Cork has been lightly raced by design, so this will be only his second start in almost 80 days. Denis of Cork did not run much when fifth in the paceless Illinois Derby, but he has bounced back to train probably better than any of his competitors. He showed a liking for the track when rallying from far back to win his debut in November. Denis of Cork has a potent late kick, so if he can get a clean trip and the pace is honest, he will make an impact late.

Z Fortune has been the overlooked 3yo in the Asmussen barn as he has raced and trained in Pyro’s shadow. His win in the Lecomte was solid, and although he finished second in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby, those were probably the best losing efforts by any Derby contender this year. While there is no doubt Pyro was much the best in the Risen Star, Z Fortune may have run a better race than the winner in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune was four wide on both turns in the Arkansas Derby, and while the pace was solid, the speed held, making Z Fortune’s closing effort more difficult.

Court Vision gave notice of his talent late last year when he won the Iroquois at Churchill and the Remsen. He returned with a decent vision in the Fountain of Youth, but followed that with a disappointing close third in the Wood Memorial. That effort was disappointing because the hot pace should have flattered his closing style, but he failed to take advantage of it. Garrett Gomez elects to stay aboard, and Court Vision has trained well at Churchill.

Colonel John has distinguished himself against the best of his generation on the West Coast, is bred to handle the distance, and has trained well, but this will be his first start over a conventional dirt surface.

Risk of posting selections early

I was very confident in Pure Clan's chances in the Oaks. My confidence was significantly lessened when I came home on Friday afternoon and realized that the track was sloppy and Elusive Lady, who was likely to press the pace, was scratched. I thought the she sloppy track and pace scenario would favor Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata, which is what I posted at the Starting Gate forum with around 12 minutes to post time: Post 10460: "The rain and the scratch of likely pace presser Elusive Lady has changed the complexion of the Oaks in favor of Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata."

I played Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata to win, and then used them as my keys in backup exactas, and I was pleased to get a generous 3-1 on Proud Spell.

Fair Grounds has once again shown that it is the place to prepare a filly for the Kentucky Oaks. Proud Spell joins Summerly, Ashado, Silverbulletday, Blushing K.D., Tiffany Lass as Fair Grounds winners who triumphed in the top race for 3yo fillies in America.

Kentucky Oaks Day

Aegon Turf Sprint (5th): These turf sprints are often dominated by specialists. Salute the Count is 5 for 9 in turf sprints, including a minor stakes win at The Meadowlands. He is winless in three starts this year, but has been giving a good account of himself with his rallies falling short. In an optional claimer at GP in February, Salute The Count passed nine horses in less than a furlong. His last effort was an excellent second going six furlongs over Polytrack at Keeneland against a tough group of sprinters.

Edgewood (7th): Grace And Power was a top turf filly as a 2yo, and closed out her season with a strong second in the Hollywood Starlet. She has been working regularly at Fair Hill training center for trainer Steve Klesaris, who is very capable with horses coming off a layoff. Gypsy Baby is winless in two starts since coming to this country. However, in her last run, she closely furiously to miss against allowance foes at Kee. Garrett Gomez stays aboard Gypsy Baby.

Crown Royal American Turf (9th): Free Fighter was a smart winner of a Fair Grounds turf allowance in his 2008 debut in February. He next appeared in the off-the-turf Transylvania at Keeneland, when he ran a steady fifth while wide. He has drawn the rail in this event, and he should give a much better performance as he returns to turf.

Kentucky Oaks (10th): Pure Clan gave notice that she would be a major Oaks contender when she easily won the Pocahontas and Golden Rod to close out her 2yo season. She chased Eight Belles in vain in the Honeybee, and a change in racing tactics was not successful against Eight Belles in the Fantasy. Those two races were merely preps for the Oaks, and she will appreciate the added distance. The expected honest pace will suit her closing style.

Selections for Saturday, April 19

Lexington Stakes (Keeneland 9th): If Racecar Rhapsody wants to be in the Kentucky Derby, he needs to win the Lexington, which he should do. He likes the Polytrack and ran well in defeat in the Lane's End when making his 2008 debut.

Tesio (Pimlico 9th): Cave's Valley was much too close to a hot pace in the Private Terms. He was a multiple stakes winner as a 2yo, and should return to his winning ways in this race.

Selections for Saturday, March 22

4th Fair Grounds: A Little Tipsy.

5th Fair Grounds: Tensas Why Gin.

9th Fair Grounds: My Three Sisters.

Closing weekend at Fair Grounds

This weekend is the final weekend of the Fair Grounds 2007-2008 meet. I think this has been one of the top two, if not the best, Fair Grounds meet that I have experienced. The racing at the top levels was outstanding, the jockey colony was the toughest I have ever seen it thanks to newcomers Bridgmohan and Leparoux, and the prominent new stables such as Larry Jones and Bill Mott were a welcome addition. Jones in particular made many of the dirt MSWs and Nw1x allowances for young horses competitive and thus, attractive betting events. While the racing at the higher claiming levels was average at best, that is mostly a reflection of the pool of available horses from which Fair Grounds draws.

I always have mixed feelings at the end of every Fair Grounds meet. It is relief to some extent because it becomes a burden to follow each day of racing at Fair Grounds. Yet, I am still sad knowing that it will be approximately eight months until horses are racing again at the Gentilly oval. The knowledge that the major 3yo preps and the Keeneland Spring meet are up ahead certainly makes things better.

Selections for Louisiana Derby Day

The big day is here for Fair Grounds fans, and the track has put together an outstanding card.

4th Race: Pectoralis Major had no chance when closing well behind a slow pace to finish a good fourth in a February race at this condition. The pace should be more honest in this race, and she gets an extra 1/16th of a mile to run.

Kenner Hcp: Noonmark ran respectable races as a 3yo while facing the better sprinters of his generation. He headed to the sidelines for nine months after running far behind Discreet Cat in the Jerome, but has returned to the run well in his next five races. Noonmark, who shipped to Gulfstream to win the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector in his last start, has trained at FG since November. He has enough early foot to remain close to Euroears without compromising his closing kick.

New Orleans Hcp: Brass Hat has been carefully managed while running against the best older horses in the world. When he is on his game, he is top-class, as shown by his win in the 2006 Donn Handicap, and his second in the Dubai World Cup that same year. He loves the distance, and shipped to Fair Grounds early to get a four furlong work over the track.

Muniz Hcp: This is a very tough race. Grade 1 winner Daytona returns from Southern California after a huge win in the Fair Grounds Handicap, but I don't think he will run as well this time as he will be facing yielding conditions. Brilliant would normally be tough to beat, but this is his first race in eight months, and he is obviously pointing to other races down the road. Fracas makes his U.S. debut for Barclay Tagg, after winning multiple Group events in Ireland and England. He is competitive with this group, and will be ignored in the betting. I also like Twilight Meteor, who lost a photo to Nobiz Like Showbiz in a turf stakes last summer at Delaware Park.

Louisiana Derby: Pyro is the hot horse after his dynamite win in the Risen Star, but I wonder if he is set up for a top effort in this race. He has earned enough money in graded stakes to cement his spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby, so I think all his connections want from this race is for him to get enough out of this race without knocking him backwards. I like two horses in here. J Be King has never raced past six furlongs in two career runs, but has been explosive in both his debut at Saratoga and his win last month at Fair Grounds. He may find himself on an easy lead and head straight for the winner's circle. Blackberry Road has the opposite running style as he likes to run from far back. He did not have a chance at beating Pyro in the Risen Star, but his trouble in the stretch cost him a much closer finish. He gets a new pilot in Robbie Albarado. If Blackberry Road can get a cleaner trip, his potent late run will make him competitive in here.

Selections for Louisiana Derby Preview Day

No question about it. The fields for the stakes on Derby Preview Day are stacked with top-class talent. Five Grade 1 winners, including two Breeders Cup winners, will enter the starting gate at Fair Grounds on Saturday. With the exception of the Pan Zareta, the stakes offer great betting opportunities.

Colonel Power-No Fault and Fort Prado.

Mineshaft-Encaustic.

Fair Grounds Hcp-Sterwins and Silverfoot.

Silverbulletday-Highest Class.

Risen Star-Visionaire.

Selections for Saturday, February 2nd

FG Race 7: Steel Pier and Chief Export.

FG Race 9 (Black Gold): Knotty Knotty.

GP Race 6 (Swale): St. Joe.

GP Race 9 (Donn): Brass Hat.

OP Race 8 (King Cotton): Probation Ready.

SA Race 6 (La Habra): Areigo.

SA Race 7 (Santa Monica): Society Hostess and Silkly Smooth.

SA Race 8 (Thunder Road): Mr Nappaer Tandy and Siren Lure.

SA Race 9 (Strub): Giant Gizmo and Monterrey Jazz.

Selections for Saturday, January 26

More rain for New Orleans is in the forecast for Saturday morning, so it is a safe bet that the turf races, including the featured Krantz Handicap, will be transferred to the main. Autobahn Girl is my selection. She has won three of seven starts over traditional dirt surfaces, including a win in the Suncoast at Tampa Bay and a victory over Canada's Horse of the Year Sealy Hill in a Gulfstream allowance last January. She also ran a close fourth behind Acorn champ Cotton Blossom in the Tampa Bay Oaks. The Malcolm Pierce barn has done little wrong this FG meet.

The Sunshine Millions will be held on Saturday, and it is very possible that only half the "Millions" races will be run as Santa Anita has cancelled several cards this week because of torrential rainstorms and problems with its Cushion Track. My selections for the portion held at Gulfstream Park are: Mach Ride (Sprint), Robbie's Gal (Oaks), and Prop Me Up (Distaff). Prop Me Up has trained at Fair Grounds, where she ran an excellent fourth in the Furl Sail over the grass. She faces the Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Ginger Punch in here, so the race is tough, but she should hold her own against the rest of the field and is 20-1 ML. The Millions Turf looks wide open, but there are two in the race that I really like: French Vintage and Birdbirdistheword.

Road to the Derby Kickoff Day

Fair Grounds has put together an outstanding card for the Road to the Derby Kickoff Day. Turf races were transferred to the main track on Thursday and Friday, but the weather in New Orleans on Friday was dry, so hopefully the Colonel Bradley and Leggio Handicap will remain on the sod. Here are several horses I like in the various stakes events.

Gaudin Handicap: Island Warrior and Demarcation.

Colonel Bradley: Save Big Money and French Beret.

Louisiana Handicap: Prom Shoes.

Leggio Handicap: Cat On A Cloud.

Tiffany Lass: Tizaqueena and Highest Class.

Lecomte: Z Fortune and Macho Again.